Catching My Eye: Stretching out in October

When a two-year-old colt stretches out to two turns for the first time and takes a major step forward, it’s only natural to think about his Kentucky Derby chances. When a three-year-old does it at this point in the season, it’s easy to wonder what could have been. We saw some strong performances from horses that fall into both of these categories this past weekend at Churchill Downs and Belmont at The Big A.

Saturday, Oct. 1, at Churchill Downs

Going 1 1/16 miles in Race 7, Frank’s Honor drew the rail in his third start and put his burgeoning talent on display. Kicking forward in the first turn to get the lead past a throng of outside horses who threatened to come over the top of him, he settled nicely through the backstretch and second turn. When it was time for separation, Brian Hernandez Jr. barely had to ask. Winning by five lengths, this son of Honor Code has more in the tanks than what we saw on Saturday, and for that effort he earned a 90 Brisnet Speed figure.

He encountered trouble in his prior race, so don’t see this as a front-running fluke. However, maybe something more like the Oklahoma Derby is in store next year for this $60,000 yearling purchase trained by Kenny McPeek. But still, something to talk about.

How about that run by the Brad Cox colt Open Road. This three-year-old was slow to the racetrack, not clocking in his first official workout until March of 2022 and not making his first start until May, when he won on debut. At the end of July, a tough trip cost him the win against Doug O’Neill’s Pennsylvania Derby (G1) runner B Dawk.

Two months and six workouts later, this $360,000 purchase sired by Quality Road took on a salty field going 1 1/8 miles, including Tepeu, Tiwanaku, Complete Agenda, and the front-runner Strong Quality, who took to the lead on Saturday. Open Road had no problem breaking from the outside, clearing the inside horse and settling in behind that foe for the race-long press, which turned into a two-horse duel down the stretch. Both dug in, and it was the colt going two turns for the first time who made the late surge, earning a 99 Brisnet Speed figure.

Another eye-catching effort came out of the Brad Cox barn at Churchill Downs on Saturday. Largely ignored by the Saratoga bettors on debut earlier in September, two-year-old Tapit’s Conquest finished half a length shy of the win at seven furlongs. Two workouts later, this half to Salvator Mundi broke from the far outside as the favorite in his first try at two turns and quickly encountered trouble. As he tried to clear the field, an inner foe blew the turn, bumping Tapit’s Conquest into the 6 path. Florent Geroux got his mount back in position, stalking in third, then took over before the second turn and never looked back.

The 84 Brisnet Speed figure matches his sprint number, but given the trouble, we can feel confident that number would have been higher and should be treated as such going forward.

Sunday, Oct. 2, at Belmont at the Big A

Already having tried a route of ground on the dirt, two-year-old colt Major Dude moved to the turf in Sunday's Grade 2 Pilgrim S. at Belmont at the Big A. Bolt d’Oro’s progeny are having a ton of success on the turf, winning at a 23% clip as of Sept. 30. In Major Dude’s previous race against stakes company in the Sapling at Monmouth Park, he ran well until he hit the stretch where he couldn’t capitalize on the three-wide move he made to the front in the second turn.

With the turf influence on the dam side, Todd Pletcher could have always had the Pilgrim in mind, or he astutely recognized Major Dude didn’t produce his best kick when asked in the stretch. He did that and more on Sunday, making a similar three-wide, second-turn run to the front then accelerated out of the turn to take the lead. Chased down and challenged by the odds-on favorite I’m Very Busy, Major Dude looked him in the eyes then got back to work, pulling away to win by a length.

Earning an 86 Brisnet Speed figure over yielding ground in his first turf route leaves the type of question that could offer us value in his next run: Does he simply prefer soft going? I say no, Major Dude’s strong previous efforts on firm dirt tracks lead me to believe he will only run faster on firm turf in his next start.