Catching My Eye: Week 3 at Keeneland

With Breeders' Cup weekend around the corner, racing analyst Kevin Kilroy continues to examine track trends as well as individual performances at Keeneland.

If you liked a rail horse on the dirt track last week, or most of the Keeneland meet, then you know — they are just not winning. Outside posts are breaking with alacrity and hustling over, shutting out rail and inner foes who do not have the gusto to get to the front.

Early speed is still fairing best over the dirt track, possibly because of the clouds of kickback the dry course is kicking up. If you like an outside speed horse going forward, I’d suggest liking it twice as much.

Wednesday, Oct. 19

Make it six times now in the exacta for the Lord Nelson three-year-old Aboukir Bay. Jason Barkley has this filly in form, stringing together her second win in late-running fashion.

Wednesday’s 5 1/2-furlong turf sprint put her against some big-speed-figure foes, three of which went at it at the front end, setting up nicely for a closing run. But it was the 6-5 Brad Cox four-year-old Shannon who had first run on those.

The finish line seemed to be in her grasp when the fully extended Aboukir Bay flew past her to win by 1 1/4 lengths. At 21-1, Barkley’s barn has three wins from just seven starters. En fuego.

The three-year-old filly Save Grace from Nacho Correas’ barn showed something nice in Race 2 on Wednesday. Exiting a key race at Ellis Park from the end of July, I am moving her up after this win off the layoff.

It didn't look like she had a shot given how the track was favoring early speed, but she settled near the back for the seven-furlong run, raced three-wide, and then off the far turn behind horses she attacked an opening like a beast and never stopped.

Closing down the center of the track, Save Grace was full of run to pass two class-dropping frontrunners who should not have been overtaxed by the fractions. Just a maiden claimer event but still, if spotted properly, I would expect another good run from this Super Saver filly.

Lady Goldstart overcame the poor trip Ricardo Santana Jr. piloted for her to run better than her speed figure suggests. Going to the rail from the three-hole, Santana put a mild bid in for the lead but didn't commit and got shut off into the turn, having to pull back and lose two lengths. Then he never got out from behind horses, and coming for home, she rebid, willing herself through a tight spot fighting past two fillies with stakes back class.

Lady Goldstart is a winner, as her 6-for-11 record suggests, so don't read too much into the speed figure if it seems light. Claimed out of this race, she’ll make her next start for Juan Cano.

Thursday, Oct. 20

A host of three-year-old routers, including a few Triple Crown runners, lined up in the gates looking for that third win in Race 8 on Thursday. Victoria Oliver’s Trademark broke from the 13, stalked four-wide then opened up by three lengths in the second turn, never letting another foe back in the race.

He earned a 100 Brisnet Speed figure in the dominant victory, in which he lost ground and ran in fourth behind three frontrunners who finished last of the pack, so he could have well been toast himself. Efforts like this are usually just the beginning.

Bettors never see Fancy Martini coming. Winning her first at 17-1 and second at 6-1, the three-year-old filly by Klimt just won her third race — this time at 54-1.

She put all her positive attributes on display on Thursday: she broke cleanly and to the front, she settled to let others take lead, sat a ground-saving trip, and she showed her endurance offering a late run that kept all bids at bay.

Joe Sharp has a nice turf horse who just hit her top Brisnet Speed figure (86) and has the potential to continue progressing.