Chasing Saturday carryovers at Colonial and Gulfstream

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares horses to play in a pair of Saturday carryovers at Colonial Downs and Gulfstream Park.

Colonial Downs: Race 4: $733 Pick 6 carryover (3:10 p.m. ET)

Lightning and a power outage led to more than half of Colonial’s Friday card being cancelled. As a result, the $733 Pick 6 carryover intended for Friday’s card will instead be available to chase on Saturday.

There are two stakes in the sequence. The first is Race 5, the $150,000 Keswick S. for registered Virginia-bred/sired or Virginia-restricted two-year-old fillies. The 5 1/2-furlong sprint will feature seven starters following the scratches of #3 Bonne Fille (5-1) and #9 Let Thesunshine In (10-1).

#4 Diakonissa (5-2) is the morning line favorite after smashing a 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weight for West Virginia-breds at Charles Town by 9 1/2 lengths. But the 78 Brisnet Speed rating she received isn’t a standout against the Keswick field, and Daikonissa may be vulnerable while transitioning from the bullring track at Charles Town to the full-sized oval at Colonial Downs.

#1 Shkhara Fire (9-2) and #2 Safe Trust (4-1), both victorious in $45,000 maiden claimers at Laurel Park, have respectively earned Brisnet Speed ratings of 82 and 80. They’re logical contenders, but we wouldn’t underestimate the first-time starters #5 Sporting Lady (6-1) and #7 Winfinity (15-1).

Sporting Lady has the pedigree to shine from an early age and enters off a series of encouraging half-mile workouts at Keeneland. Meanwhile, Winfinity is a daughter of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) runner-up Not This Time, who sires a lofty 19% winners from first-time starters. She’s trained by John Ortiz, who does fine work with debuting juveniles. Either of these unraced fillies is eligible to surprise on debut.

The second stakes is Race 6, the 5 1/2-furlong Hickory Tree S. for registered Virginia-bred/sired or Virginia-restricted two-year-olds. It’s a competitive contest with many viable win contenders, and 10 horses will start following the scratches of longshots #4 Stormy Flight (30-1) and #9 Brewmaster (10-1).

#12 Tojo’s Mojo (3-1) is the slim morning line choice after wiring a five-furlong maiden special weight at Laurel Park by three lengths over a next-out winner. That victory yielded a flashy 85 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest number in the Hickory Tree field by five points. He’s a must-use contender, though drawing the far outside post could complicate his path to victory.

Want to throw a price horse into the mix? Try #6 Summerinthecountry (15-1), runner-up twice in $45,000 maiden claimers at Laurel Park. The son of early-maturing juvenile Upstart has improved while gradually stretching out in distance and earned a 79 Brisnet Speed rating in his latest start. If he improves again while adding blinkers (an 18% winning move for trainer Hugh McMahon), Summerinthecountry may have a shot to surprise at double-digit odds.

Gulfstream Park: Race 11: $9,585 Super High 5 carryover (6:24 p.m. ET)

Update: Due to scratches, Super High 5 wagering in Race 11 has been canceled.

Gulfstream’s $9,585 carryover in the $1 Super High 5 is up for grabs in Race 11, the $95,000 Bear’s Den S. for three-year-olds racing one mile on turf.

The morning line favorite is #4 Grand Mo the First (5-2), who finished 18th in the Kentucky Derby (G1) after finishing a distant third to champion Fierceness in the Florida Derby (G1). Dropping into an ungraded stakes could trigger a competitive showing, though Grand Mo the First can’t be viewed as unbeatable; his lone turf start yielded a third-place finish by 3 1/2 lengths in the one-mile Zuma Beach (G3) at Santa Anita, a decent but not especially remarkable performance.

Second choice #8 General Ledger (3-1) might be a more likely winner. After a couple of defeats against stakes competition on dirt, he tackled a 1 1/16-mile $75,000 allowance optional claimer over the Gulfstream Park turf course last month and dominated by 3 1/2 lengths. His quick final time of 1:39.36 translated to a 90 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest last-out number belonging to any horse in the Bear’s Den field.

Now General Ledger is picking up hot jockey Drayden Van Dyke, a 27% winner at Gulfstream Park and a 26% winner teaming up with trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. over the last two months. We recommend taking a stand and keying General Ledger on top in the Super High 5.

Good luck!