Cheltenham Festival: Spot Plays for Wendesday, March 12

We’re on to Wednesday at Cheltenham! Day two of the Cheltenham Festival features more exciting action, including several Group 1 races that feature top-tier steeplechase horses and opportunities to take some swings for value.

I’ve got a pair of spot plays for the Wednesday program. Here they are…

Race #2: #7 Stellar Story (12-1 ML)

The Group 1 Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase features a bunch of horses that want to be on or near the lead early. From a race shape standpoint, it sure seems like this three-mile event sets up for a closer, and Stellar Story seems like the only one in the field who fits that description.

He was last seen running second in a Group 2 event in Ireland. He probably would have won that race if not for a few mistakes along the way, but even so, he rallied to be beaten just a neck after racing last early on. Stellar Story has shown he has Group 1 quality. In fact, he won such a race here, last year, at this route of ground, and he’s earned six wins in 14 career outings to date. 

It’s sometimes tough for closers to make up ground in races this long. That probably explains why he was up a bit closer in a few of his prior outings. However, given Stellar Story’s past form here and his likely price, I simply have to take a swing and hope this one falls apart up front.

Race #6: #1 JPR One (8-1 ML)

This is the Grand Annual Challenge Cup, and while my top pick does carry top weight of 168 pounds in this one, the class drop is just too big to ignore.

JPR One has spent most of the last several seasons going up against Group 1 and Group 2 foes in Great Britain. He won a pair of Group 2 races last season and was a decent third in a Group 1 two back at Sandown. His last outing wasn’t great, as he was fourth of five at Newbury. However, this handicap event represents shallower waters that he should appreciate. Only a few of his opponents here have tried Group 1 or Group 2 races, and only one, #4 American Mike, has had anything close to recent success at that level. He won a Group 2 in February of 2024, but has struggled to replicate that performance in his subsequent outings.

Given his past accomplishments, I think JPR One should be favored here. If he isn’t, he strikes me as a considerable overlay, provided you can forgive the last-out clunker. Given that that race was against much better runners, that’s something I can do pretty easily.