Churchill Downs: Betting the $5,615 Super High 5 carryover

The $1 Super High 5 at Churchill Downs went unsolved in the final race on Saturday, triggering a $5,615 carryover into the opening race on Sunday’s card.

Race 1 is a $20,000 maiden claimer for fillies and mares racing one mile on dirt. With eight horses in the entries, there are 6,720 possible Super High 5 outcomes, a reasonable number.

The morning line favorite is #5 Lady Aberdeen (2-1), and she looks formidable. The three-year-old filly is dropping in class after finishing a pacesetting third in a $30,000 maiden claimer sprinting six furlongs at Keeneland. Her tactical speed is an asset, and her lone route race to date yielded a respectable fourth-place finish in a one-mile maiden special weight at Fair Grounds, so tackling a one-turn mile at Churchill Downs should suit Lady Aberdeen just fine. Plus, she was claimed out of her Keeneland effort by trainer Tom Amoss, who wins at a staggering 52% rate with horses dropping in class off of a claim.

So what if we key Lady Aberdeen on top of our tickets? If we take this approach, then the next step will be to emphasize #1 Silent Secretary (3-1) underneath. The four-year-old filly has competed primarily on turf and synthetic, but her two dirt runs were both respectable. In an off-the-turf $30,000 maiden claimer racing 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds, she finished third. And in a $20,000 maiden claimer racing 1 1/8 miles at Keeneland last month, Silent Secretary closed from a few lengths off the pace to finish third, earning a 75 Brisnet Speed rating that ranks as the highest number in Sunday’s field.

We’ll count on Silent Secretary to finish either second or third. Then we’ll spread deeper for the remaining slots on our tickets. The horses we’ll focus on the most are #8 Iuka Miss (5-1), claimed by Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen after finishing third in a six-furlong $10,000 maiden claimer at Churchill last time out; #7 West Coast Song (6-1), who is trying dirt after a trio of defeats at higher class levels on synthetic; and #6 Xtra Extraordinary (8-1), who ran third in a $40,000 maiden claimer sprinting seven furlongs at Keeneland two starts back.

• $1 Super High 5: 5 with 1 with 6,7,8 with 4,6,7,8 with 3,4,6,7,8 ($27)
• $1 Super High 5: 5 with 6,7,8 with 1 with 4,6,7,8 with 3,4,6,7,8 ($27)
  Total: $54

Good luck!