Churchill Downs: Early Pick 5 for Wednesday, Sept. 27, 2023

On Wednesday, Churchill Downs fires up the final week of the September meet. Here is an early Pick 5 play that kicks off with a single in the opening leg.

50-cent Pick 5 = $72

• R1:  4
• R2: 2,11,12
• R3: 1,2,4,7
• R4: 1,5,6,7,9,12
• R5: 4,6

Race 1: Dirt, 7 Furlongs, Clm 20000, 3yo & up

I’ll light this candle singling #4 Run Smitty Run (8-5). Robertino Diodoro’s runners have been firing this meet, and it looks like he’s got the first leg of the Pick 5 in the bag. Adding blinkers, dropping in class, and exiting a career-best effort, where he was closing into a speed-favoring track, I’ll lean on him even though there is no value in doing so.

Race 2: Dirt, 6 Furlongs, Md 16000, 3yo & up fillies

It’s a field of 12, and I could see this race going several different ways. #2 Witch of November (4-1) took a modest step forward last out, and that was on the turf. Now she is back to her preferred surface, and hopefully won’t have a speed-bias track to deal with like she was up against at Ellis this summer. #11 Alter the Stars (12-1) posted the best ThoroGraph figure in the field last out when closing into a speed-favoring Colonial Downs dirt track. Someone needs to step forward to win, but if none of the experienced runners do, then #12 Daisy Jones (10-1) could easily take this field. Trainer and pedigree stats make the case for her being live on debut.

Race 3: Dirt, 1 1/16 Miles, Clm 10000, 3yo & up

Hard to know whose form to trust in this leg. #1 Yak (4-1) does not need the lead and has held form nicely when facing lesser. #4 Commander Carl (3-1) has speed to lead, but there are a few others who will want to be leading the ranks. #2 Job Security (5-1) and #7 Code Runner (7-2) have the back class and could be overlooked, but if either produces a top effort, that would be more than enough to beat these.

Race 4: Dirt, 6 Furlongs, Md 20000, 2yo fillies

Here’s the race where I have my least strong opinions. #1 Sweet Guitar (8-1) showed speed last out, now draws the rail and will likely be sent to the lead. #5 Walk On By (3-1) is a live first-time starter with a trainer who can get them ready at first asking, and has both a sire and dam who have had strong success with two-year-olds. #6 Fasta Lavista Baby (9-2) makes a big drop in class after regressing in her second start, but that was at Kentucky Downs, so who knows if the course/turf was the problem. #7 Anna’s Wish (10-1) has a handful of strong trainer stats on her side while making her second start, adding blinkers, and going from turf to dirt. #9 Ready For Trouble (8-1) took money on debut and had a tough trip. #12 Missy Bee (8-1) took money on debut but was off the pace on a speed-favoring day and finished fourth.

Race 5: Dirt, 1 1/16 Miles, Alw 10000s, 3yo & up

In a race with four contenders, two of them are seven-year-olds who just ran a new top last out. I don’t trust them to repeat. The other two are four-year-olds, getting better while still maturing, and could pop a new top today. Lindsay Schultz’s trainee #4 Tiger Moon (3-1) posted a career best last out when coming from off the pace to win over a forward track. Those were cupcakes compared to this salty field, so we’ll see what he is made of. #6 Nordic Light (6-1) makes his third start for Brad Cox. The four-year-old stepped forward last race and should do so again, which he’ll need to do against these foes.