Churchill Downs: How to bet the $9,774 Super High 5 carryover

$9,774. That’s the size of the non-jackpot Super High 5 carryover up for grabs in Saturday’s opening race at Churchill Downs. It’s not quite five figures, but it’s close, and it’s an enticing prize pool.

Race 1 doesn’t appear overly complicated to handicap. It’s a $25,000 claimer taking place over 1 1/16 miles on dirt, and with eight entries there are only 6,720 possible Super High 5 outcomes to analyze.

The morning line favorite is #1 Major Fed (8-5), and we’re keen to key him on top. Back in 2020 he ranked among the better three-year-olds in North America, finishing second in the Risen Star (G2) and Indiana Derby (G2) prior to running 10th in the Kentucky Derby (G1).

Now six years old, Major Fed enters off a 12-race losing streak dating back to 2021, when he won back-to-back allowance and allowance optional claiming events racing 1 1/16 miles over the Churchill Downs main track. But Major Fed has never competed in a straight claiming race, and the Brisnet Speed ratings he’s been posting against allowance optional claiming competition (falling in the 82-89 range over his last six starts) stamp him as a formidable win contender while dropping in class.

There are a couple of other positive angles in Major Fed’s favor. Trainer Gregory Foley has gone 3-for-9 (33%) at Churchill Downs this meet, while jockey Tyler Gaffalione has gone 19-for-68 (28%). Together they’ve gone 2-for-4 (50%) over the last two months, so Major Fed is a compelling choice to take home first prize.

Underneath, #2 The Honorable One (12-1) is a live longshot worth supporting. True, he misfired in his most recent start, finishing last in a $40,000 allowance optional claimer at Horseshoe Indianapolis. But his form prior to that was strong; he even wired a $50,000 claimer at Keeneland. The Honorable One has been freshened since May and enters off sharp workouts, so there’s a good chance he’ll bounce back to peak form at enticing odds.

#7 What a Country (8-1) also looks like a good fit for this race. His most recent dirt start produced a runner-up finish in a $25,000 starter optional claimer at Belterra Park, and during the spring meet at Churchill Downs he ran second in a $25,000 claimer.

We’ll also support #8 Cool Rags (9-2), winner of a $30,000 claimer at Ellis Park two starts back, and #5 Shortlist (6-1), third in a $50,000 claimer at Churchill Downs during the spring. In contrast, we’ll oppose #3 Cousin Larry (4-1) and #4 Treasury (5-1), allowance competitors who bring deteriorating form lines to the table.

• $1 Super High 5: 1 with 2,5,7,8 with 2,5,7,8 with 2,5,7,8 with 2,5,7,8 ($24)

Good luck!