Churchill Downs: How to bet the Louisville Stakes May 15

A huge field of 14 will contest the feature at Churchill Downs on Saturday, the $150,000 Louisville S. (G3). The 1 1/2-mile grassy endeavor is led by deserving favorite #10 Arklow (7-5), who missed by a head in the race last campaign. A Grade 1 winner, the seven-year-old son of Arch is an obvious inclusion for most wagers, but I feel compelled to find value in an event with this many contenders signed on. And I will swing for the fences.

Louisville Wagers

• $10 win and place #2 Imperador ($20)
• $2 exacta key box 2 with 7,9,10 ($12)
• $.50-cent trifecta box 2,7,9,10 ($12)

Multiple Group 1 winner #2 Imperador (30-1) has not been overly impressive from a trio of races since arriving in the U. S., but I think that he is sitting on a big effort on the stretch-out in distance on Saturday. The bay son of Treasure Beach showed good late energy when fourth in a deep allowance tilt at Keeneland most recently despite being in traffic, and improvement is likely in his second outing off the layoff.

Imperador earned success at the highest level at both three and four, with one of those triumphs coming at 10 furlongs. The Paulo Lobo pupil had posted a pair of decent morning drills in preparation of his second attempt on the Churchill green and figures to find himself much closer to the pace early on while saving ground throughout. Joe Talamo retaining the mount is a major positive in my opinion. Bombs away!

Arklow is too consistently good to keep off of my tickets for Brad Cox. The bay has versatility in his running style, he runs well fresh, and the Kentucky-bred is also proven on the course. He will be stalking early with Florent Geroux in the stirrups.

I am not sure what happened to the accomplished #7 Red Knight (6-1) in the Elkhorn S. (G2) at Keeneland most recently, but I am more than willing to give the hard-trying gelding another chance in this spot. The Bill Mott trainee has thrived since competing at marathon distances on the green and is very playable at a solid morning-line number. 

Mike Maker claimed #9 Monarchs Glen (20-1) out of his latest and puts him right into a tough spot in his first for new connections. I have seen the expert horseman pull off this move too many times to omit him at a big number with Adam Beschizza riding. The Frankel seven-year-old fits the profile of a horse who will take a big step forward on Saturday.