Churchill Downs: Picks and plays for opening-day stakes

Racing returns to Churchill Downs with a bang Sunday. A competitive “Stars of Tomorrow” program is on the agenda, featuring 11 races for 2-year-olds.

The action culminates with a pair of 1 1/16-mile stakes — the $98,000 Street Sense S., open to all horses, and the $98,000 Rags to Riches S. for fillies.

It’s possible we’ll see 2021 Kentucky Derby (G1) and Kentucky Oaks (G1) contenders in action, so let’s review the merits of the favorites and come up with some wagers.

Race 8: Street Sense S. (4:36 p.m. ET)

Favoritism figures to fall on #7 Super Stock, the winner of the Texas Thoroughbred Futurity who finished third in both the Iroquois (G3) and Breeders’ Futurity (G1) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

The Steve Asmussen trainee has posted four Brisnet Speed ratings in the 85-93 range, whereas none of his rivals have exceeded the 85 mark.

But Super Stock won’t offer much value, and I’m not convinced he’s unbeatable.

#5 Eucharist posted an 84 Brisnet Speed rating when he scored by a length in his debut sprinting at Keeneland. It was a noteworthy achievement, because trainer Rodolphe Brisset isn’t a frequent winner with first-time starters.

But Brisset strikes at a 20% rate with last-out maiden winners and at a 22% rate with horses running long for the first time, so Eucharist should improve Sunday with jockey Tyler Gaffalione.

We’ll bet Eucharist to win and play him in the exacta, with Super Stock.

$12 to win on #5 Eucharist
$6 exacta: 5 with 7
$12 exacta: 7 with 5
Total: $30

Race 10: Rags to Riches S. (5:36 p.m. ET)

The Rags to Riches lacks a clear favorite, with #6 Salty as Can Be possibly looming as a slim betting choice. Sold for $850,000 as a yearling, the daughter of Into Mischief rallied to victory in her debut Sept. 4 at Churchill Downs, counting next-out winner and fellow Rags to Riches contender #5 Lady Traveler among her beaten rivals.

A half-sister to Salty, who won the 2018 La Troienne (G1) at Churchill Downs, Salty as Can Be warrants plenty of respect for trainer Mark Casse.

But two of her rivals appear formidable.

#8 Coach has gone 2-for-2 sprinting at Indiana Grand and dominated her opponents (including #1 Orsetto) by a minimum of 4 1/4 lengths. And #9 Midnight Ballerina enters off a sharp debut win at Churchill Downs for trainer Bill Mott, and as a daughter of Mineshaft, out of a Midnight Lute mare, she is bred to relish the stretch out past a mile.

Let’s box Salty as Can Be, Coach, and Midnight Ballerina in the exacta.

$5 exacta box: 6,8,9 ($30)

Good luck!