Churchill Downs stakes spot plays for Thanksgiving Day

Happy Thanksgiving!

Churchill Downs will celebrate Thanksgiving Day with a smorgasbord of appealing races. A dozen events are on the agenda for November 28, led by the $300,000 Falls City Handicap (G2) and the $175,000 Cardinal Stakes (G3).

Looking to pass some time while you wait for Thanksgiving dinner to finish cooking? Here are a couple of spot plays to spice up the afternoon.

Race 9: Falls City Handicap (G2)

There are some accomplished older mares entered in this 1 1/8-mile race. #3 Mylady Curlin and #9 Go Google Yourself are both graded stakes winners, while the consistent #1 Moonlit Garden has placed four times at the grade 3 level.

But I’ll be enthusiastic in my support for the improving 3-year-old #6 Sally’s Curlin. Trained by Dale Romans, this stretch-running daughter of Curlin has won four of her last five starts, including three victories at Churchill Downs. Following a pair of blowout allowance wins during the summer, Sally’s Curlin unleashed a big rally to edge Mylady Curlin in the one-mile Chilukki Stakes (G3) over this track.

With Brisnet late pace ratings of 107 and 118 in her last two starts, Sally’s Curlin has the strongest late kick in the Falls City field and might improve while stretching out over 1 1/8 miles. She is clearly maturing at the right time and will retain the services of leading jockey Corey Lanerie.

I expect Sally’s Curlin to win right back, and if her 3-1 morning-line odds hold up, a win bet is in order.

$30 to win on #6 Sally’s Curlin

Race 11: Cardinal Stakes (G3)

At first glance #11 Starship Jubilee looks like a standout in this 1 1/8-mile turf test. She put her speed to good use this fall at Woodbine, where she dominated the Canadian Stakes (G2) and E. P. Taylor Stakes (G1) with perfect trips on the front end.

But it is worth emphasizing the word “perfect.” Starship Jubilee benefited from slow fractions in both races, which allowed her to accelerate in the stretch and prevent late runners from making an impact. She’ll face a large field in the Cardinal, will break from post 11 and I’m not convinced Starship Jubilee will thrive under these conditions, especially away from her favorite course at Woodbine.

#6 Notapradaprice is a consistent alternative to Starship Jubilee and is in career-best form, with three wins from her last four starts. A victory in the Dr. James Penny Memorial Stakes (G3) at Parx suggests she has the talent to compete at this level.

I suggest keying Notapradaprice in the exacta with every other runner except Starship Jubilee. If the favorite finishes out of the top two, we could be looking at a lucrative payoff, especially if we can catch a longshot for first or second place.

$2 exacta: 6 with 1,2,3,4,5,7,8,9,10,12 ($20) $1 exacta: 1,2,3,4,5,7,8,9,10,12 ($10)

Good luck!