Churchill Downs Sunday picks and $1,000 KDBC/BCBC Qualifier

The big day is here. On Sunday, TwinSpires is hosting a $1,000 Churchill Downs KDBC/BCBC Qualifier tournament with entries into the Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge and Kentucky Derby Betting Challenge up for grabs.

The complete rules can be viewed here, but the basics are straightforward—wager your entire $700 bankroll across at least five races at Churchill Downs, with a minimum of $70 per race required for the race to count.

If you’re planning out your strategy, let us help by sharing horses to support in a trio of races:

Race 5

This 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies looks ripe for conquest by #1 Girl Math (8-5). The daughter of McKinzie finished fourth in her debut sprinting, then stretched out over a one-turn mile at Churchill Downs to finish second in a maiden special weight. That effort earned a sharp 84 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest number belonging to any filly entered in Race 5. Trainer Rodolphe Brisset wins at a 32% rate with horses running long for the second time, so Girl Math is perfectly positioned to vie for victory.

We suggest betting Girl Math to win and keying her over #6 Going Steady (3-1) in the exacta. The latter has placed in two of her four starts while competing against graded stakes-caliber fillies like Scottish Lassie, La Cara, Quickick, and Snowyte.

Race 9

The morning line favorite to win the 1 1/16-mile Rags to Riches S. is #6 Good Cheer (6-5), an unbeaten filly conditioned by high-percentage trainer Brad Cox. Good Cheer won her debut by 8 1/4 lengths before trouncing a 1 1/16-mile allowance at Churchill Downs by 17 lengths, earning an excellent 93 Brisnet Speed rating.

None of the other Rags to Riches entrants have cracked the 90 plateau, so Good Cheer is the filly to beat if she replicates her last performance. We recommend betting Good Cheer on top of exacta and trifecta tickets using #3 Sherbini (6-1) and #2 Claire’s Charm (5-2) underneath.

Race 11

The Sunday finale is a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight for two-year-olds. The fastest entrant from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective is #5 Render Judgment (5-1), who earned an 87 when launching a wide rally to finish second in his debut sprinting seven furlongs at Keeneland three weeks ago.

Trainer Kenny McPeek doesn’t typically crank his juveniles to win on debut, so Render Judgment’s diminishing 1 1/2-length margin of defeat can be seen as a sign of good things to come. McPeek wins at a 15% rate with second-time starters, and at a 16% rate with horses running long for the first time, so at 5-1 Render Judgment is worthy of a win bet.

Good luck!