Churchill Downs: Tips and trends for betting the spring meet

The Churchill Downs spring meet gets off to a belated start Saturday, which will bring racing back to Kentucky after a nearly two-month hiatus.

In anticipation of the six-week meet, let’s review a few useful stats and trends to keep in mind while handicapping the classy racing action.

Outside posts can be beneficial in sprints

According to post-position statistics compiled by Equibase, outside posts can be favorable in dirt sprints at Churchill Downs. During the 2019 fall meet, horses who broke from post 10 went 7-for-60 (11.7%) in dirt sprints and horses starting from post 11 went 5-for-39 (12.8%), even better than the strike rates compiled by post 1 (13-for-130, 10%) and post 2 (14-for-130, 10.8%).

This is all the more remarkable, considering outside posts mathematically have a smaller chance of producing winners than inside posts. There will always be a horse breaking from the rail, and in a five-horse field, there’s a 20% chance the winner will start from post 1. But post 10 is only occupied in races with ten or more starters, when the raw chance for victory by any given post is no more than 10%.

Favor inside posts on the turf

Horses in the three innermost posts excelled in turf races during the 2019 fall meet, when they won 14 of the 26 races held on the lawn. That’s a 54% strike rate, which ties in with the widely held belief that ground-saving trips are beneficial on grass.

The track has been fast in recent years

While Secretariat’s Kentucky Derby record has stood untouched since 1973, that doesn’t mean the Churchill Downs main track is on the slow side these days. Seven of the track records at Churchill were established during the last decade.

Wilbo: 5 furlongs in :56.41 (Sept. 18, 2016)
Groupie Doll: 7 furlongs in 1:20.44 (May 5, 2012)
Fruit Ludt: 1 mile in 1:33.26 (Nov. 21, 2014)
Successful Dan: 1 1/16 miles in 1:41.04 (May 4, 2012)
Eskenforit: 1 3/16 miles in 1:56.49 (Sep. 20, 2019)
Sonneteer: 1 1/2 miles in 2:30.42 (Apr. 30, 2019)
Rocketry: 1 3/4 miles in 2:57.62 (Nov. 2, 2018)

Keep the speed of the racing surface in mind when you handicap, and evaluate fast final times in context with the entire day of racing. A performance that looks sharp on paper may have been the result of a blazingly fast track.

Lanerie, Asmussen, Kenneally figure to shine

No jockey has been more successful at Churchill Downs in recent years than Corey Lanerie. The veteran rider has won six of the last eight meet titles at Churchill, including all three in 2019, and he dominated the 2019 spring meet, with 43 wins. Lanerie guides a high percentage of winners and is known for his willingness to ride the rail, which often results in clever, ground-saving victories.

Trainer Steve Asmussen has been similarly successful. His deep stable has won five of the last eight Churchill Downs meet titles. He won the 2019 spring meet with 28 victories, well clear of runner-up Eddie Kenneally (18 wins). But Kenneally has compiled a significantly higher win rate than Asmussen over the last three years — 23% compared to 18%.

Kenneally has been particularly successful with favorites. He is 35-for-81 (43%) with favorites since 2017, and betting all of Kenneally’s favored runners during that time frame would have yielded a 4% profit. He doesn’t start as many horses as Asmussen, but for betting purposes, Kenneally’s runners tend to be more lucrative.

Good luck with your handicapping!