Colonial Downs: A single and a longshot for the $2,357 Pick 6 carryover

July 22nd, 2023

The Saturday card at Colonial Downs brings a $2,357 carryover in the “Old Dominion 6,” a $1 Pick 6 wager with a modest 15% takeout rate.

Saturday’s sequence includes two stakes: the $150,000 Andy Guest S. and the $150,000 Van Clief S. It’s a fun afternoon of racing with the potential to generate enticing payoffs.

The Pick 6 gets underway in Race 4 at 3:08 p.m. ET. Planning to play along, but not sure where to begin? We’ve analyzed the entries to identify a solid single and a live longshot worth building tickets around:

Best single: Race 4: #6 Certain (6-5)

The opening leg of the Pick 6 is a $30,000 maiden claimer taking place over 5 1/2 furlongs on the outer turf course. Eight horses have been entered, and morning line favorite Certain looks formidable.

In three starts sprinting on turf since transferring to the care of trainer Richard Hendriks, Certain has earned consistent (and competitive) Brisnet Speed ratings of 74, 72, and 75. First he finished fourth in a $45,000 maiden claimer. Then he ran second (beaten only a neck) over the same class level at Laurel Park. Most recently, Certain finished third in a maiden special weight at Delaware Park.

Certain is versatile in terms of running style, and his Brisnet Speed ratings stamp him as an apparent standout while dropping down to the $30,000 maiden claiming level. Only one of his rivals has posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 72, and that rival achieved his signature number on dirt instead of turf.

Any way you slice is, Certain comes out as the horse to beat while dropping in class. We’ll single him to start the Pick 6.

Live longshot: Race 7: #8 Boomin’ Belle (8-1)

The seventh race on the card is a $40,000 maiden claimer for two-year-old fillies racing 5 1/2 furlongs over the outer turf course. Seven of the nine entrants are first-time starters, so there isn’t much form to analyze.

We’re keen to support the experienced Boomin’ Belle as a live longshot. Conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse (who has compiled a sharp 5-2-2-0 record at Colonial Downs this meet), Boomin’ Belle has run twice against maiden special weight company on dirt, finishing fifth at Churchill Downs and sixth at Ellis Park.

As a daughter of three-time Grade 1-winning turf star Get Stormy, Boomin’ Belle is eligible to improve while switching to turf. Combine this change with the drop into maiden claiming competition, and Boomin’ Belle has every chance to challenge for victory at a nice price. She’s a must-use contender in the Pick 6.

Good luck!

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