Colonial Downs: A single for the $1,378 Pick 6 carryover

There’s a lot to look forward to during the Saturday card at Colonial Downs.

The $125,000 Jamestown S. and a trio of $150,000 handicaps are on the agenda. Those five races comprise the first five legs of a $1 “Old Dominion 6” Pick 6 featuring a modest 15% takeout rate and a $1,378 non-jackpot carryover.

Five of the six races in the sequence have drawn 10+ horses, so there are many possible Pick 6 outcomes to analyze—847,000, to be exacta. But the opening leg of the Pick 6, the Jamestown (Race 5, post time 3:30 p.m. ET), drew only seven horses, making it an ideal spot to search for a single.

The Jamestown is a 5 1/2-furlong turf sprint for registered Virginia-bred or Virginia-sired juveniles, and two contenders rank above the rest on paper. One is #7 Virginia Fitz (3-2), who led all the way to win a state-restricted $40,000 maiden claimer over this course and distance by 2 1/4 lengths, earning a 72 Brisnet Speed rating. Virginia Fitz is one of only two proven winners in the Jamestown field and the only one who has won on turf, so his credentials are appealing.

But we prefer the filly #2 Sail Theseven Seas (6-5), who has competed exclusively on dirt so far. She debuted in a non-state-restricted maiden special weight sprinting five furlongs at Laurel Park, in which she closed nicely to finish second by 1 1/4 lengths. Then she tackled the state-restricted 5 1/2-furlong Keswick S. at Colonial Downs and again finished second by 1 1/4 lengths despite encountering some traffic trouble along the way.

That effort yielded a 78 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest number in the Jamestown field. And there’s a chance Sail Theseven Seas will run even better while switching to turf. Her dam, In the Navy Now, has produced two named foals prior to Sail Theseven Seas, and both have won on turf.

Throw in the fact trainer Michael Trombetta wins at a solid 16% rate with horses running on grass for the first time, and Sail Theseven Seas appears poised to break her maiden. Pick 6 players with large budgets might want to include Virginia Fitz for good measure, but bettors with more limited funds can feel good about their chances taking a stand with Sail Theseven Seas.

Good luck!