Colonial Downs All-Stakes Pick 4 Plays

A quartet of black-type races for Virginia-bred/sired horses will be hosted by Colonial Downs on Saturday. Below is my analysis of the Middle Pick 4 sequence. 

Wagers:

$1 Pick 4: 1 with 4,5,7 with 1,2,3 with 3,6,7 ($27)

$1 Pick 4: 1 with 4,5,7 with 1 with 3,6,7 ($9)

Race 4 – Brookmeade S. 

Six fillies and mares will go postward in the 1 1/16-mile grassy tussle. Despite the lack of pace in the field, I’ll be singling the favorite to kick off the wager. Michael Stidham’s #1 Tufani (6-5) is the clear class of the field, and while starting the sequence off with a short-priced play, I simply feel that she is a standout. She will go one better compared to her second-place finish in 2023. 

Race 5 – Edward P. Evans S. 

The one-mile turf test for the boys attracted seven, and morning-line choice #7 Repo Rocks (1-1) can be vulnerable on this switch to the lawn. The classy six-year-old is a standout with the company that he has been facing on the main surface, but the dark bay has failed to hit the board from a trio of lifetime outings on the lawn. I’ll undoubtedly include him, but he’s not a single in my mind. 

#5 Passion Play (4-1) is my top selection and has endured success in the race in the past. The eight-year-old captured the contest in 2021 and was a smart second in 2023. #4 Hay Chief (3-1) also has some appeal moving from the main strip to the sod. This Brody’s Cause gelding has decent turf experience and is worth tossing in. 

Race 6 – Punch Line S. 

#1 Determined Kingdom (4-5) has blitzed his foes by a combined 10 3/4 lengths in winning the dash in two straight seasons, and the Animal Kingdom gelding is a formidable presence in the seven-horse cast. The five-year-old was an excellent winner in his 2024 debut at Laurel Park and will be popular at the windows. 

If #2 Ship the Goods (4-1) can win the break and keep the favorite hemmed in on the rail in the heat, then the Munnings gelding has an outside chance of pulling off the major upset. This Anthony Farrior pupil stopped early in his last pair of outings to kick off 2024, but he’s worth a flier third time off the bench for a high-percentage outfit. 

#3 King Covee (12-1) is most interesting to me second off the claim. He has done his best work on the sod, and it’s curious that Schoenthal would enter him in the field while also saddling the prohibitive morning-line choice. If he runs to his rapid :45 and change work at Fair Hill most recently, then the longshot could be live from off the pace at a big number. 

Race 7 – Tyson Gilpin/Glenn Petty S. 

The finale is a 5 1/2-furlong turf dash for the ladies. Both of the heavily backed contenders on the morning line are super logical, with #3 Chambeau (6-5) and #7 Mystic Seaport (8-5), certain to make the ticket. But, that speedy duo might soften each other up and come back to their foes in the latter stages of the affair, so I’ll also include #6 Chickahominy (5-1). The Great Notion mare has a nice turn of foot and is a winner on the surface.