Colonial Downs: Analyzing the mandatory-payout $9,483 Pick 6 carryover

Six straight racing days at Colonial Downs have gone by without anyone hitting the $1 “Old Dominion 6” Pick 6. A $9,483 carryover has accumulated, and it will be paid out in mandatory fashion on Saturday, closing day of the meet.

The meet is ending on a high note. There are six stakes on the agenda, and they comprise the six legs of the Pick 6.

Colonial Cup kicks off the sequence

The opening leg of the Pick 6 is Race 5 (post time 3:05 p.m. ET), the $150,000 Colonial Cup taking placing over 1 1/2 miles on turf. Only six horses have entered, and #3 Webslinger (4-5) looks like a standout. He’s placed three times at the Grade 1 level, including when third in the Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic (G1) during the spring.

Webslinger was beaten only 3 1/2 lengths in the United Nations (G2) last time out and looms as a viable Pick 6 single while dropping in class. The last time he tackled an ungraded stakes, he won the 1 3/8-mile Chorleywood S. at Churchill Downs with a strong late charge.

Juveniles face off in Rosie’s, Kitten’s Joy

A pair of stakes for juveniles wrap up the first half of the Pick 6.

Race 6, the $125,000 Rosie’s S. for two-year-olds sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on turf, looks ripe for conquest by #3 Governor Sam (5-2). He wired a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight over the Saratoga lawn, then tracked a fast pace on his way to winning the five-furlong Tyro S. at Monmouth Park. Governor Sam owns the three highest Brisnet Speed ratings in the Rosie’s field and looks like another logical single.

Race 7, the $125,000 Kitten’s Joy S. for juveniles running 1 1/16 miles on turf, is a tougher contest. Six of the 11 entrants have yet to race on turf, so it’s difficult to identify the key contenders. One we’ll certainly want to use is #2 Thrilla (6-1), who wired a one-mile maiden special weight over the Colonial dirt last month by 18 lengths. His pedigree suggests successfully switching to turf is a possibility.

Da Hoss is wide open

The fourth leg of the Pick 6 is Race 8, the 5 1/2-furlong Da Hoss S. on turf. #5 Isivunguvungu (8-1), a multiple Group 1 winner in South Africa, enters off sharp workouts for Graham Motion and is a must-use contender in his U.S. debut.

But spreading deep may be necessary to survive in the Pick 6. #9 Dream Shake (7-2), a graded stakes winner who prevailed in the Van Clief S. over this course and distance last month, has a serious win chance. So too does #8 Nothing Better (4-1), victorious in a pair of turf sprint stakes this year. Even #2 Sweet Cherry Pie (12-1) has the credentials to challenge.

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Virginia Oaks is wide open

The 1 1/8-mile $250,000 Virginia Oaks for three-year-old fillies has drawn a wide-open field. In his exotic plays for the Virginia Oaks, John Mucciolo has landed on #13 Belle of Rights (8-1), #7 Deep Satin (5-1), and #1 Style Points (8-1) as his top three contenders.

We see the race in much the same way, though for Pick 6 purposes we might also use #5 Distorted d’Oro (15-1), who is unbeaten in two starts on turf.

Virginia Derby closes out the meet

The final leg of the Pick 6, and the final race of the meet, is the $500,000 Virginia Derby (G3) for three-year-olds racing 1 1/8 miles on turf.

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#3 Deterministic (3-1), third by 1 1/2 lengths in the Saratoga Derby (G1) last time out, is a serious contender while dropping in class. Kentucky Derby (G1) veteran #2 Grand Mo the First (4-1) must also be respected off a rallying triumph in the Bear’s Den S. over the Gulfstream Park grass. #1 Herchee (5-1) is undefeated in two turf starts, #11 Fulmineo (15-1) has won two grass stakes this year, and #12 Zverev (10-1) is eligible to rebound off a troubled sixth in the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame (G2).

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Of these five, we prefer the chances of Deterministic and Zverev. But if you have the budget, using all five to close out the Pick 6 will give you an even stronger chance to cash.

Good luck!