Colonial Downs: Singles for the Arlington Million Day Pick 6 carryover

The stakes-packed Sunday card at Colonial Downs includes a $733 carryover in the $1 “Old Dominion 6” Pick 6, which features a modest 15% takeout rate.

The all-stakes sequence gets underway in Race 6 at approximately 3:30 p.m. ET. Looking for singles to build tickets around? We’ve analyzed the entries and identified a pair of possibilities:

Race 8: #8 Mischief Magic (5-2)

Race 8 is the $150,000 Van Clief S., a 5 1/2-furlong turf sprint that drew 12 horses. Although the field is large, morning line favorite Mischief Magic looks like a viable single.

Winner of the 2022 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1), Mischief Magic has been running well against tough competition this year. During the spring he finished second in the Shakertown (G2), third in the Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G2), and fifth in the Jaipur (G1).

Both the Twin Spires Turf Sprint and the Jaipur were won by Cogburn, a standout turf sprinter who set a North American record of :59.80 while dominating the 5 1/2-furlong Jaipur by 3 1/2 lengths. Mischief Magic missed third place by only a length against the multiple Grade/Group 1-placed Star of Mystery, who returned to win a fast edition of the Quick Call (G3).

In other words, Mischief Magic has been facing fierce foes. Dropping in class for the Van Clief can send Mischief Magic to the winner’s circle for the formidable jockey/trainer duo of William Buick and Charlie Appleby, who have gone 3-for-6 (50%) teaming up together over the last two months.

Race 11: #4 Nations Pride (8-5)

Buick and Appleby are also teaming up with Nations Pride, the favorite to win Race 11, the $1 million Arlington Million (G1). The prestigious 1 1/4-mile grass contest drew only six horses, and Nations Pride looks like an awesome fit for this distance and class level.

Nations Pride has won six times over 1 1/4 miles, including when taking the Canadian International (G1) at Woodbine last year. He’s 0-for-2 this season, but exits a runner-up finish in a deep edition of the Manhattan (G1) at Saratoga, in which he launched a last-to-first rally to finish only two lengths behind his talented stablemate Measured Time.

Nations Pride has performed well over damp turf courses, so if rain softens the Colonial lawn, that shouldn’t bother him at all. There should also be enough pace to set up a favorable trip, so Nations Pride is the horse to beat and a logical single in the final leg of the Pick 6.

Good luck!