Del Mar: Analyzing the mandatory-payout $384,489 Pick 6 carryover

Del Mar’s $384,489 Pick 6 carryover is scheduled for a mandatory payout on Sunday, which means bettors who select the highest number of winners will split the jackpot, no unique winning ticket required.

The final pool for the 20-cent wager is expected to exceed $2 million and possibly reach $3 million. It’s a lucrative pot, but winning a share won’t be easy; every race contains at least nine horses, and there are 2,358,720 possible outcomes before scratches.

The Pick 6 gets underway at 7:39 p.m. ET with Race 6, a $10,000 claimer for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs on dirt.  It’s a tough race with many viable contenders. #1 Crown Kitten (7-2) is the morning line favorite, but she looks vulnerable while exiting a third-place finish in an $8,000 claimer at Los Alamitos, a race in which she finished 2 1/2 lengths behind #10 Wrong Turn Cupid (5-1). Perhaps we can beat the favorite with longshot #8 Why Behave (15-1), who wired a $16,000 claimer sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Keeneland two starts back.

Race 7 is a $20,000 allowance optional claimer for California-breds traveling one mile on turf. #1 Oubabe (7-2) might be the best choice after closing ground into strong finishing fractions to finish second in a $40,000 allowance optional claimer for California-breds at Santa Anita last month. But if we like Oubabe, we have to respect  #3 Talklessworkmore (5-1), who carved out the pace in that Santa Anita contest before staying on to finish second by a head, 1 1/2 lengths clear of Oubabe. And we can’t overlook #7 Worse Read Sanchez (8-1), who finished only a head behind Oubabe in fourth place while attempting to rally from midpack.

One of the toughest legs of the Pick 6 is Race 8, a maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies dashing 5 1/2 furlongs over the main track. #3 Gate to Paradise (3-1) enters off fast workouts for trainer John Shirreffs, but since 2019 Shirreffs has compiled a 19-1-5-3 record debuting juveniles in dirt sprints during the summer at Del Mar. Shirreffs trainees often improve second-time out, so Gate to Paradise could be vulnerable on debut. The similarly fast-working trio of #7 Thermal (5-2), #9 Chatalas (4-1), and #10 Just Be You (8-1) are appealing alternatives, along with Bob Baffert’s #11 Nothing Like You (4-1) if she draws in off the also-eligible list.

The feature event on Sunday is Race 9, the Eddie Read (G2) taking place over 1 1/8 miles on turf. #9 Count Again (3-1) is the most accomplished entrant after winning the Frank E. Kilroe Mile (G1) and Shoemaker Mile (G1) last year, but he hasn’t run in 14 months and is 0-for-3 racing 1 1/8 miles. He’s worth including in the Pick 6, but so are many others;  #5 Dicey Mo Chara (6-1) and #6 Cabo Spirit (5-1) are particularly logical since both have won graded stakes racing 1 1/8 miles, but you can make a case for pretty much any horse to visit the winner’s circle.

Race 10 is an $80,000 allowance optional claimer with 10 entries. #1 Piroli (5-2) is the favorite after finishing second by one length in the 1 1/4-mile Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) last time out, but two starts back he ran third over this distance and class level at Santa Anita, beaten two lengths by #3 It’s My House (5-1). Meanwhile, #10 Breakfast Ride (4-1) has faltered in three straight stakes (two of them graded), but prevailed over this track, distance, and class level last fall. Any one of these three can win, and bettors playing on large budgets might want to go even deeper.

The Pick 6 wraps up with Race 11, a $62,500 maiden claimer taking place over 1 1/16 miles on turf. #8 Classically (5-1) and #9 Adventuresome (8-1) have placed against maiden special weight company on turf and should appreciate dropping in class. Just as importantly, both have shown tactical speed, which could be valuable in this largely paceless race. #5 Fast Chad (7-2), the mount of hot jockey Juan Hernandez (a 23% winner on turf this year), also has a chance to factor after finishing ahead of Adventuresome last time out.

Good luck!