Del Mar: Bet this longshot in the Shared Belief Stakes

Although a couple of major names have been entered in the $100,000 Shared Belief S. on Sunday at Del Mar, it’s possible the one-mile test for three-year-olds is ripe for an upset.

At first glance, the Shared Belief looks like a match race between #2 Medina Spirit (7-5) and #3 Rock Your World (8-5). Certainly they’re the most accomplished runners in the six-horse field. Medina Spirit won the Robert B. Lewis S. (G3) during the spring and crossed the wire first in the Kentucky Derby (G1), while Rock Your World defeated Medina Spirit by 4 1/4 lengths when wiring the Santa Anita Derby (G1).

But here’s the problem: Medina Spirit and Rock Your World are both returning from layoffs, and they weren’t in peak form when last seen. Medina Spirit ran below expectations in the May 15 Preakness S. (G1), carving out the pace before fading third. Meanwhile, Rock Your World crossed the wire 17th in the Kentucky Derby before fading to sixth place in the June 5 Belmont S. (G1), beaten more than 20 lengths on each occasion.

It’s possible Medina Spirit and/or Rock Your World will rebound after being freshened, but the fact both colts prefer to race on the lead is another obstacle. Suppose they hook up in a destructive speed duel and burn each other out?

This scenario could play to the strengths of #4 Team Merchants (5-1), an up-and-coming sprinter in promising form. The son of Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist was tons the best in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga last summer, drawing off to win by 3 3/4 lengths over future Remsen S. (G2) runner-up Ten for Ten and recent allowance winner Speaker’s Corner.

Team Merchants has run twice since then, trailing in a May 2 turf allowance at Santa Anita before posting a determined victory in a July 16 dirt allowance at Del Mar. In the latter race (contested over 6 1/2 furlongs), Team Merchants rallied gamely from mid-pack to beat I Got No Munny by half a length. I Got No Munny, in turn, came back to win his next start against similar company.

The fact Team Merchants is proven at Del Mar is appealing, and the 100 Brisnet Speed rating he received for his allowance win isn’t far off the best figures posted by Medina Spirit (101) and Rock Your World (102). Team Merchants has turned in several fast workouts since then and might just fire a winning shot in his two-turn debut.

Let’s bet Team Merchants to win, then bet him over the favorites in the exacta.

$20 to win on #4 Team Merchants
$5 Exacta: 4 with 2,3 ($10)
Total: $30

Good luck!