Delta Downs: Pick 5 Play for Oct. 19

Can you be too wise a guy for your own good? Yes. But that won’t stop me from playing the early Pick 5 sequence while fading all five morning line favorites at Delta Downs on Wednesday.

It’s highly likely that a few on my ticket will go off as the shortest price, but no matter what, there are multiple opportunities for separation from the pack in Wednesday night's pool.

50-cent Pick 5 = $30

Race 1: Dirt, 5 Furlongs, MC 5000, 3-year-olds and up

#1 Moonshine Max (4-1) has a Thoro-Graph pattern that suggests he will run better than his last, which would beat these, and he has the early speed needed to negate the rail, which has been the kiss of death most of the Delta Downs meet. If he doesn't get the lead, then there’s a strong chance that #2 Song Spectacular (10-1) does. Vicente Del-Cid hops up on this seven-year-old who will look to go gate-to-wire. The four-year-old #4 War Zong (7-2) makes his second start for Karl Broberg after trying tougher last out. Though Broberg has started out slow, Zong’s progeny know how to win.

Race 2: Dirt, 6 1/2 Furlongs, Clm 5000N3L, 3-year-olds and up

#5 G’s Storm (5-1) has been hard at work in 2022 but gets a nice freshener between the Louisiana Downs meet and his first go at Delta Downs since his maiden races last spring. The Thoro-Graph pattern points to another step up after the four-plus-length score going shorter last out. Single.

Race 3: Dirt, 6 1/2  Furlongs, MC 10000, 3-year-old and up fillies 

#2 Wheels Like Nala (5-1) got claimed for $5,000 and enters today at double that after a strong workout. She attracts Jose Guerrero. #4 Call Me Darlin (6-1) will try to steal this one on the lead. #6 Lucky Deal (6-1) took a bump out of the gate but still looked sharp near the front when improving at second asking. Alex Birzer is up — a positive signal. #10 Riptide Rose (10-1) is by Sabercat, who wins with plenty of first-time-starters. #11 Saberfight (8-1) has an improving Thoro-Graph pattern and gets top jock Del-Cid.

Fade: Why #9 Ann’s Storm (3-1) has been on the grass I don't know, but even though the move to the dirt might be what the doctor ordered, there’s too many other live horses in this race to lean on this one, who will be on nearly every ticket.

Race 4: Dirt, 6 1/2  Furlongs, Alw 35000N2L, 3-year-olds and up

Maybe #3 Eye Dee Kay (5-1)’s best run was due to the sloppy conditions of the track, or maybe he’s on the verge of a top performance. We’ll get a bit of value in the Pick 5 pools using this one, though the win pool will likely offer the answer to this question before the race is run. 

#9 Mesabi (12-1) makes his first start since Shane Wilson took the blinkers off. The morning works signal this Gun Runner gelding is at his prime, so here’s another who I do not see going off at his morning line price.

Race 5: Dirt, 7 Furlongs, MC 20000, 3-year-old and up statebreds

#3 Josan (8-1) has improved with every start and the last two were in the mud, so there could be some hidden talent here at a price on Wednesday’s fast track. Last time out #4 Flat Out Fabio (12-1) ran seven lengths behind the likely favorite, Prince Perfecta, but that one will be making his 13th start while Fabio will be making his fifth. Turf to dirt, third off a layoff, and a Thoro-Graph pattern that suggests Fabio’s next race will be his magnum opus.

Fade: #5 Prince Perfecta (2-1): Seven out of 12 in the money, this four-year-old with seconditis is as consistent as they come. No reason to believe today will be any different: He’ll finish gamely to the wire but just miss. Definitely a vertical opportunity here.