Dubai World Cup Preview: With more international interest

The 2024 Dubai World Cup carries a little more international interest than usual, with the typical Japanese, American, and Dubai horses opposed by an exciting runner with strong links to, of all places, Kazakhstan.

Meydan Race 9 Selections

#4 Derma Sotogake
#6 Kabirkhan
#11 Ushba Tesoro
#2 Crupi

Meydan Race 9 Wagers

$10 win/$30 show: #4 Derma Sotogake
$1 trifecta: 4, 6 with 4, 6, 11 with 2, 4, 6, 9, 11, 12

#6 Kabirkhan may be a U.S.-bred son of California Chrome, but he’s owned in Kazakhstan and began his racing career there, unbeaten in three juvenile starts. He found Russian opposition little more difficult, winning his next five before an unexpected defeat in the Russian Derby to Hero Mo.

That form doesn’t always translate to major international circuits, but Kabirkhan’s move to the Dubai stable of Doug Watson hasn’t stopped the winning, as he beat Hero Mo in a handicap before dominating his opponents in the Al Maktoum Challenge (G1) Jan. 26.

So can the fairy tale continue against much stronger opposition? It could well do so, but he’ll need to show more again to emulate his Dubai World Cup-winning sire.

The most accomplished horse Kabirkhan beat in January was the third-place finisher, Lukas Classic (G2) winner #1 Clapton. He didn’t advertise the form that well when filling the same placing behind nine-year-old #8 Military Law (sixth in the Al Maktoum Challenge) in the Al Maktoum Classic (G2) March 2. Kabirkhan, however, almost certainly has more in the tank to give.

Opposing him are three of the principal stars of last month’s 1 1/8-mile Saudi Cup (G1): the U.S. winner, #10 Senor Buscador; runner-up #11 Ushba Tesoro, last year’s Dubai World Cup winner; and fifth-placed #4 Derma Sotogake, winner of the UAE Derby (G2) and second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).

Senor Buscador stayed every yard of the Saudi Cup to get up on the line, but his record at 1 1/4 miles is not great. The two Japanese runners, however, clearly do stay the trip. It’s also notable that Derma Sotogake improved greatly between his Saudi Derby (G3) third and his UAE Derby win last year, and he could do the same here.

The best U.S. hope may be Bob Baffert’s #9 Newgate. In his first try at 1 1/4 miles, he needed the whole trip to head Subsanador in the Santa Anita H. (G1) March 3, so stamina is not such a question. How well he races on a four-week backup and an international flight is a query.

The other U.S. entrant, #2 Crupi, is well worth a look for exotics. He rallied well for third in the Pegasus World Cup (G1), and being by Curlin out of a Malibu Moon mare, shapes as though he will relish 1 1/4 miles.

Japan’s other two runners, #12 Wilson Tesoro and #5 Dura Erede, both disappointed in the one-mile February S. (G1) Feb. 18, but form was turned upside down for many runners that day.

A better guide to their chances may be their respective second- and third-place finishes behind Ushba Tesoro in the Tokyo Daishoten Dec. 29. Dura Erede also has form against Derma Sotogake, finishing a distant second in last year’s UAE Derby; once again, both could well figure in exotics.

The field is completed by two former Baffert horses now in Dubai stables: #7 Laurel River, winner of the one-mile Burj Nahaar (G3) March 2 and yet to race beyond that distance; and #3 Defunded, last year’s Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) winner who needs to improve on his midfield Saudi Cup finish.

A victory to Kabirkhan would be a great story, and he should run well. But I’m going to tip Derma Sotogake to improve on his Riyadh effort, as he did last year, and take this race. Exotics could pay well as any number of horses could fill the lower rungs.