Early Pick 5 Play for Keeneland Oct. 29

The Late Pick 5 looks chalky, so let’s attack the early sequence where there are favorites in Race 1 and Race 4 I am excited to fade. 

Speed continues to be the key at Keeneland and for closing day, let’s keep that in mind as we step to the plate swinging for the fences. 

50-cent Pick 5 = $96

Race 1, Dirt, 6 Furlongs, Md $20,000, 3-year-olds and up fillies

I’ll fire a single shot in the first leg with a filly who can give us some separation. Coty Rosin wins around 30% when shortening up from route to sprint and around 25% both when dropping into maiden claimers and moving from turf to dirt. All three categories apply to #7 Avarie (7-2). Blinkers went on last time out and we saw speed. Outside post. Dangerous, and likely overlooked.

Race 2, Dirt, 6 Furlongs, Clm $40,000N2L, 3-year-olds and up fillies

According to their Thoro-Graph patterns, #4 Dallas Volunteer (5-2), #9 Very Wealthy (12-1), and #10 Surcharge (5-1) are all sitting on a big race. Must use. And #8 Big Java (4-1) has already been running the race needed to beat these. With tactical speed, an outside post, and Tyler Gaffalione up, she only needs to offer a repeat performance. 

Race 3, Dirt, 1 1/16 Miles, OC $100k/C, 3-year-olds and up fillies

In a field of seven, five of these fillies and mares want the lead. We’ll let them burn out and take the two who have late kick and class. #2 Will’s Secret's (12-1) last race had the look of a prep.  Only going one turn, this 2021 Kentucky Oaks (G1) third-place finisher wants two. Today she gets it and attracts Luis Saez. #3 Le Da Vida (3-1) had every excuse to lose her North American debut but still she found a way. Between Didia and this one, Ignacio Correas deserves an Eclipse for bringing South American fillies up in form and ready to fire this year. Could be a single if you had ideas about spreading wide elsewhere.

Race 4, Dirt, 7 Furlongs Alw $110,000N1X, 3-year-olds and up fillies 

#2 Hypersport (9-2) has every right to step forward for Ingrid Mason, a trainer who will likely be overlooked but if you know Chicago racing then you know Mason is legit. #5 Feeling Happy (15-1) looked great winning by open lengths here in her last. Price horses who are in form are must-includes. The turf experiment for #6 My Kentucky Girl (6-1) did not work out, but if she can run back to her dirt form, she fits. Trainer Cherie DeVaux has been high on #8 Mercy Warren (10-1), and the price will be right for us to include her in a race that has two clear favorites. The morning works speak volumes. 

Race 5, Turf 1 1/16 Miles, Alw $110,000N1X, 2-year-olds 

#2 General Jim (7-2) won going long on turf at first asking with a strong speed figure. #6 Our Dream Rye’d (6-1) has had trouble getting out of the gate with any alacrity, but Ian Wilkes calls Joel Rosario to cure what ails him. #8 Bling (15-1) needs to take a step forward, but that's what juveniles do. He should be forward and that has been playing nicely at Keeneland. #9 Oscar Award (12-1) earned the strongest Thoro-Graph figure of the field in his last race with a 9. Promising to say the least, and will be half the morning line.

#10 Mendel’s Secret (4-1) ran huge in his first effort over Kentucky Downs, taking the lead and fighting back after being headed in the final stages. Likely favorite. #12 Rarified Flair (9-2) seems to be running the same race on repeat, but the company has been stout and there was a trip excuse in the last which was his first go in blinkers – reasons for improvement to say the least.