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The Smartest Bet in Horse Racing: 4 Strategies for Success
What is the smartest bet in horse racing? The answer is both incredibly complex and surprisingly simple.
Education
Expert advice for playing tournaments from the TwinSpires team
Tournaments at TwinSpires are better than ever as the horse racing industry's authoritative betting solution presents a new experience for our horseplayers.
Tournaments
Coming to You Live: A History of Broadcasting the Kentucky Derby
The 150 years of the Kentucky Derby have seen this famous test follow the evolution of media, where this racing experience has gone from words on a page to images on our screens, creating a day at the races unlike any other.
Education
The Impact of Horse Age on Speed and Performance
It’s long been understood that the age of a racehorse impacts their speed and performance.
Analysis
The role of jockey techniques in maximizing horse speed
There are many ways jockeys can maximize the speed of the racehorses they ride. Some can be analyzed mathematically.
Analysis
Each-way bets in horse racing explained: places, payoffs, and examples
What is an each-way bet in horse racing? American fans might not be familiar with the term. It’s a common bet in the fixed-odds bookmaking world of the United Kingdom, but pari-mutuel betting in the U.S. lacks a direct equivalent.
Education
What is a handicap race in horse racing?
You’ve likely heard the term handicapping referring to the process of analyzing a horse race to determine the most likely winner. But… what is a handicap race?
Education
What is a stone in British and Irish horse racing?
Follow British or Irish horse racing for long enough, and you’re bound to hear reference to the number of “stone” a horse carries. So what is a stone?
Education
Pat Day Mile shows power of horses cutting back to one turn
When handicapping one-turn stakes races for three-year-olds during and after the Road to the Kentucky Derby, favoring horses with experience running long in Derby preps can reap dividends.
Analysis
When a horse willingly races inside and through traffic, take note
Some horses are uncomfortable racing inside and behind rivals and fail to run their best when asked to do so. Others don’t mind at all, opening the door for perfect ground-saving trips.
Analysis
Top 10 fastest Kentucky Derby times in history
From a legendary Triple Crown winner to a high-priced yearling who stole the heart of a Japanese racing enthusiast, here are the 10 horses with the fastest winning times in Kentucky Derby history.
Triple Crown
Top 10 Most Successful Trainers in Kentucky Derby History
Based on overall number of victories, as well as second- and third-place finishes, here are the 10 most successful trainers in Kentucky Derby history.
Kentucky Derby
Why the Kentucky Derby generates big betting payoffs
The Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs is considered one of the best betting races of the year. The reason? Big payoffs. And the reason for the big payoffs? Simple mathematics.
Kentucky Derby
Jockeys and weight in the Kentucky Derby
Being the most identifiable human participants on average in Thoroughbred racing, jockeys will be a major focus in this week’s 150th edition of the Kentucky Derby.
Kentucky Derby
Commander Compton shows how strong a horse’s surface preferences can be
Commander Compton is vivid proof that some horses hold clear-cut surface preferences, and a reminder that poor form over a disliked surface can be disregarded when analyzing a horse’s past performances.
Analysis
When a speed horse is dominant, a closer can finish second
When you handicap a horse race and conclude that a runner with early speed—a pacesetter—appears much the best, it can pay to play a stretch runner for second place in the exacta.
Analysis
How betting longshots exiting deep races can reap rewards
It's not uncommon to analyze the entries for a horse race and see multiple runners coming out of a common previous race. If the previous race was a deep and classy contest, consider the possibility the horses exiting that race will sweep the top two or three finishing positions in the race you're currently handicapping.
Analysis
Kentucky Derby Purse: How much prize money the winning jockey will earn
In addition to the worldwide attention and acclaim Sonny Leon received for his spectacular ride aboard Rich Strike, Leon—a first-time Derby participant in 2022—also collected a portion of the $3 million purse.
Kentucky Derby
If a race is wide open, don’t dismiss out-of-state shippers
A horse shipping in from a different track or state can be inadvertently underestimated in your quest to rank the local runners, but sometimes the newcomer winds up being superior to all the locals.
Analysis
Second off layoff angle is powerful in Kentucky Derby preps
When a horse shows talent racing on dirt at age two, the Kentucky Derby (G1) often becomes a long-term goal. But getting a horse to peak on Derby day isn’t easy.
Analysis
A Clean Start: The Evolution of the Kentucky Derby Starting Gate
In its 150 years, the Kentucky Derby has gone from a standing start to a barrier to the modern starting gate, a journey that shows the ever-evolving science of a clean start.
Kentucky Derby
Lucrative exactas reiterate the power of Grade 1-to-maiden class drop
Horses dropping in class from a Grade 1 stakes to a maiden race can generate surprisingly nice payoffs.
Analysis
What is a non-wagering event in horse racing?
Pari-mutuel betting is available on the vast majority of U.S. horse races, but a few different circumstances can turn races into non-wagering events.
Education
Faded Glory: Forgotten Kentucky Derby Winners (Worth, 1912)
In Louisville, the big show went on as racing fans once again celebrated another Kentucky Derby, its victor a champion colt whose brief time on the racetrack left the sport wondering “what if?”
Kentucky Derby
Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf illustrates the power of pace
Sometimes a race will unfold in a manner that places certain runners at a distinct disadvantage. Betting these horses when they encounter more favorable circumstances in the future can be a sound strategy.
Analysis
28-1 longshot reiterates the power of changing distances
Everyone knows some horses are better sprinting and others are better running long. Rare is the horse who enjoys equal success in both sprints and routes.
Analysis
Why forgiving a disappointing second start can reap rewards
When a horse wins impressively on debut, but follows up with a disappointing defeat second-time out, it can be tempting to dismiss them as a flash in the pan.
Analysis
Longstanding track biases must be considered in handicapping
Not every Thoroughbred racetrack is equally kind to all types of racehorses. For various reasons—the type and composition of the racing surface, the configuration of a specific course layout, etc.—some tracks are more or less kind to horses with certain running styles, or those breaking from particular post positions.
Analysis
Stakes histories can identify strong or vulnerable favorites
Not all stakes races are equally kind to favorites. Some regularly churn out short-priced winners, while others toss up longshots more often than not.
Analysis
When a meet starts, top trainers can win races in bunches
At the start of a race meet, it can be useful to look back at previous meets and find out which trainers won the most races. If one name consistently ranks at or near the top of the rankings, you can usually assume that trainer will enjoy success at the upcoming meet as well.
Analysis
Pegasus World Cup Invitational Show 2024 [VIDEO]
Join the TwinSpires team as we review the Pegasus World Cup race card!
Expert Picks
Nuanced trainer stats strike again with 9-1 winner
In the past, we’ve explored how digging into the granular details of trainer stats can reveal nuances not apparent at first glance. These nuances can lead to lucrative payoffs, as was apparent at Fair Grounds last week.
Analysis
Faded Glory: The Kentucky Derby’s Forgotten Winners (Ben Ali, 1886)
In the century and a half of the Kentucky Derby lies forgotten tales of this great race. While the sport's spotlight often shines on the most celebrated champions, there are remarkable tales of victory that have faded into the recesses of time.
Education
How class drops can trigger big form turnarounds
Bettors aren’t always keen to support young horses who have shown little to no ability. But sometimes these horses win.
Analysis
Following a track bias to logical and lucrative payoffs
The power of track biases to deliver compelling pari-mutuel payoffs has been readily apparent over the last couple of weeks.
Analysis
Ghostzapper shows first-crop sire rankings can be misleading
Ranking first-crop sires by progeny earnings is useful for identifying up-and-coming stallions with potential, but the numbers can be misleading.
Pedigree
Hot jockey-trainer duos can generate lofty win percentages
When a hot trainer teams up with a hot jockey, their win percentage together can rise to impressive heights.
Analysis
Catch lucrative payoffs betting up-and-coming trainers
If you pay close attention to which trainers are rising to new heights percentage-wise, you can land enticing payoffs before the majority of bettors catch on.
Analysis
The Science of Horse Racing: Understanding the Equine Mind
In the world of animal intelligence, few possess the fascinating intellect of the horse. Their ancient partnership with humans and intricate social dynamics within herds have intrigued scientists and equestrians alike with their seemingly profound understanding and emotional depth.
Education
Breeders’ Cup to ungraded stakes is a big class drop
The drop in class from a Breeders’ Cup race into an ungraded stakes can be monumental.
Analysis
When juveniles finish slowly in sprints, be careful betting them in routes
How can you predict whether a lightly raced juvenile will thrive or struggle while tackling route distances of one mile or longer? Pedigrees, coupled with how fast they finish in sprints, can provide clues.
Pedigree
Like father, like son doesn’t always apply in horse racing
It’s tempting to simplify pedigree handicapping down to “Sire X thrived under Y conditions; therefore his foals will also appreciate Y conditions.” But reality is often more complicated.
Pedigree
When a horse suddenly improves, is it a new normal?
When an experienced horse steps up and runs a race far better than any they’ve previously run, it’s fair to wonder if it was a one-time fluke. But if the improvement coincided with an obvious change, it might be a new normal.
Education
The Science of Horse Racing: It's All About Time
From stopwatches to GPS tracking, the methods racetracks have employed over the last three centuries have sought to capture race times accurately for posterity and for punters.
Education
How field sizes can affect win percentages
Many factors can influence the win percentages recorded by jockeys and trainers, both overall and in specific types of races. Ability and opportunity are two of the biggest factors, but another is field size—the number of horses entered in a race.
Education
Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast: Nov. 8, 2023
Jason opens the show discussing some thoughts on horse racing in larger media and racing films. Then he discusses some thoughts on racing at Delta Downs as well as post positions and handicapping.
Racing Podcast
When a horse specifically targets a race, take notice
When handicapping high-profile graded stakes, it’s helpful to keep an eye on the racing news to determine which horses have been specifically pointed to the race and which are joining the field at the last minute.
Analysis
When turf turns soft, look for longshot speed horses
When heavy rain strikes and a turf course becomes soft, consider upgrading the chances of frontrunners and speed horses. It can reap lucrative dividends.
Analysis
The Science of Horse Racing: When Is Pedigree Useful?
Understanding the influence of sire and dam and the right time to consider pedigree can make that information a useful part of your handicapping routine and give you more data to help you decide where to put your wagering dollar.
Analysis
When well-bred horses debut, wait for the right time to bet
When a sibling or half-sibling to a high-profile racehorse debuts, it’s common for bettors to notice the elite pedigree and bet heavily, even if the sibling is debuting in a race that seems less than ideal from a pedigree perspective.
Education
When chalky outcomes appears likely, consider the superfecta
Some bettors avoid playing races that seem likely to unfold in predictable fashion, because the payoffs are bound to be small. But sometimes the most likely outcome can pay surprisingly well, particularly if you embrace exotic wagers like the superfecta.
Analysis
TwinSpires $2,500 NHC Qualifier Feeder: TwinSpires rolls out new $10 win bet tournaments
Outside of working at a racetrack, to me, there’s no better experience as a handicapper than going to the National Horseplayers Championship (NHC). TwinSpires announced a new tournament, the TwinSpires $5,000 NHC Qualifier, offering two seats.
Tournaments
Betting Strategies: Building tickets with the market in mind
In terms of building multi-race tickets, we are betting into the races blindly, meaning we do not have any tote information about where the money is going and who might be underlays or overlays. Therefore, a lot of horseplayers end up writing tickets that simply reflect their opinions of who could win, forgetting about the notion of value.
Analysis
Identifying versatile sires can lead to lucrative payoffs
When a male racehorse enjoys success racing over a particular surface (dirt, turf, or synthetic), it’s easy to assume his progeny will follow suit. But sometimes they prove more versatile than expected.
Analysis
When betting lightly raced juveniles, analyze the horses they’ve run against
When handicapping lightly raced juveniles who have only run one or two times, it’s helpful to examine the quality of horses they’ve competed against to get a feel for which runners are coming out of high-quality races.
Analysis
The Science of Horse Racing: Bits
From a simple snaffle to a Norton, the right bit is just as important as the saddle and the blinkers you see on your favorite Thoroughbred.
Education
Betting Strategy: Pursuing Opinions Worth Betting
Kevin Kilroy discusses a unique take on betting strategy and the questions you may want to ask yourself before placing that winning bet.
Education
When favorites are out of form, up-and-comers can surprise
An accomplished racehorse in subpar form can be vulnerable against up-and-coming but less accomplished rivals.
Analysis
Improving horses can turn the tables on seemingly superior rivals
Just because one horse beats another the first time they face off doesn’t mean the outcome won’t be reversed in subsequent meetings. The history of horse racing is replete with examples.
Analysis
Betting Strategy: So you like an underlay favorite, what now?
You’re handicapping and you see a horse you like--a form pattern, a trainer angle, speed figures, whatever the angle. This horse should win, you think. What now?
Education
What is a Quarter Horse and why is it named that?
Versatility, agility, strength, and speed are the overarching qualities that make the Quarter Horse such a stunning and special equine breed.
Education
Horses debuting in stakes can win and pay nicely
Once in a while, you’ll see an unraced horse enter a stakes. You might assume an inexperienced first-time starter is overmatched against stakes-caliber rivals, but that isn’t always the case.
Analysis
How Fast Can a Horse Run: The Science of Horse Racing
Whether they pull a sulky, run a long distance, or sprint over a short quarter mile, three breeds are the stars of the sport we all love, but, of the three, who is the fastest and why?
Education
Look for horses beaten by talented rivals; they can offer nice odds
In many horse races, there is a tendency among bettors to favor horses who enter in winning form. But a horse who ran well in defeat against a talented rival can be just as likely to factor.
Analysis
Training to Win: Mutli-race ticket construction with James Scully [VIDEO]
When it comes to multi-race bets, also known as horizontal wagers, good ticket construction involves budget and strategy.
Education
Training to Win: Graded Stakes race analyzation with James Scully [VIDEO]
Graded stakes are specialized races - the highest levels in Thoroughbred racing - and bettors have many factors to consider when handicapping.
Analysis
Tall Tales of the Track: Kingston Goes the Distance
Bred by a Pillar of the Turf in James R. Keene, Kingston’s longevity on the racetrack comes in not only in the number of times he raced but in the wins he accumulated over his nine seasons, his greatness sealed in the record books and the Hall of Fame for all time.
History
When elite speed horses duel, consider the possibility one will falter
What happens when the two best horses in a race are pacesetters with lots of early speed? The answer isn’t always what you expect.
Analysis
The Heart That Wears the Crown: Assault
With a heart as big as Texas, Assault did not let his small size or disfigured hoof keep him from wearing a crown and sealing his place in racing history.
Triple Crown
When betting with stats, make sure they're up to date
Bettors who employ statistics in their handicapping should ask themselves from time to time whether their favorite angles are still relevant, or if the data is telling a new story.
Analysis
Sometimes, it pays to excuse a disappointing first race
If a young horse disappoints when well-bet in their first start, it can pay to take a forgiving view of the performance and assume they’ll run better second-time out.
Analysis
The Science of Horse Racing: What is a Turf Hoof?
Understanding the difference between turf and dirt hooves and what that knowledge adds to your toolbox can give you another angle to consider when making your picks.
Education
Unpredictable two-year-olds provide opportunities to beat favorites
Horseplayers should be careful betting on heavily favored two-year-olds, especially during the summer when early-maturing types with flashy form lines tackle tougher races.
Analysis
Tall Tales of the Track: A Girl Named Ruth(less)
More than the first name on a long list, Ruthless was the best of her generation, whose grand career on the track made her accidental demise off the track all the more tragic.
Education
Why seemingly good trips can actually be bad
In horse racing, the simplest form of a “bad trip” is racing wide and losing ground against a rail-skimming rival. But on the other hand, saving ground doesn’t automatically constitute a good trip.
Analysis
The Heart That Wears the Crown: Count Fleet
Count Fleet swept into his classic season like no other. Virtually unbeatable at three, his trip through the three races was marked not by grinding stretch runs for the win but by the ease behind his victories, the clear joy he had in the running. The heart that wore the sixth Triple Crown was one that was both headstrong and ecstatic in one small brown package.
Triple Crown
When high-class horses lose off layoffs, betting opportunities can arise
When a high-profile racehorse suffers a defeat in their first run off a layoff, it’s tempting to forgive the misfire and assume they were a bit rusty. But that isn’t always the right betting strategy.
Analysis
What is a World Pool, and how does it work?
Once in a while, you might hear the term “World Pool” pop up in reference to international horse racing. Have you ever wondered what it means?
International
Betting Strategy: Finding an edge as a horseplayer
The individual horseplayer can find an edge from seeing the same thing as everybody else but reacting to it in a different way.
Education
Horsey History in the Tar Heel State: Where Breeding and Racing Have Surprising North Carolina Roots
Though live racing has not been part of the sporting landscape for generations, North Carolina has deep roots in the early history of both Thoroughbred racing and breeding, roots even older than the United States itself.
History
The Science of Horse Racing: Four Legs and Infinite Questions
Injuries to a horse’s leg bones can mean a range of outcomes, requiring everything from simply time to heal to ultimately having to let go of a beloved companion. From Spanish Riddle to Epicenter, the reality of the legs’ structures makes treatment and recovery a tenuous and difficult outcome that is dependent on a number of variables.
Education
How track bias and post stats can point out logical winners
Finding a near-certain winner in a horse race isn’t easy, but analyzing track bias and post position statistics can help uncover the likeliest of winners.
Analysis
In some graded stakes, historical trends reveal standout contenders
Some races are dominated by a particular type of horse year after year, and bettors attuned to these trends have a better-than-average chance to cash nice payoffs.
Analysis
Tall Tales of the Track: Three Times the Victory
The Carter Handicap has long been a feature of the New York stakes schedule. Inaugurated in 1895, the race is named for William Carter, a tugboat captain and Brooklyn contractor who put up a portion of the purse money and the trophy for his namesake race. Both Aqueduct and Belmont Park have hosted the Carter, but for the majority of its history, it has been contested at Aqueduct, where, in 1944, something singular happened.
Education
How small fields provide chances to nail exotic wagers
There is a belief among bettors that small fields make for unappealing betting races. But small fields don’t always mean small payoffs.
Education
The Heart That Wears the Crown: Whirlaway
Whirlaway, the fifth Triple Crown winner, ignited the imaginations of those along for the ride on the cusp of war in 1941.
Triple Crown
Sometimes, a horse's distance limitations aren't hard and fast
Not all racehorses run best over the same distances. Some are sprinters who tire running farther than six or seven furlongs, while others are route racers who thrive racing 1 1/8 miles and farther.
Education
Subtleties in race grades can produce lucrative payoffs
You might assume that a Grade 1 race is better than a Grade 2, and a Grade 2 is better than a Grade 3. That’s a good rule of thumb, but it doesn’t always hold true.
Analysis
The Science of Horse Racing: We're All Ears
Understanding the language of a horse’s ears as well as the impact of what they hear on their behavior can help us gain insight into our athletic partners on the track and off.
Education
How Kentucky Derby Winners Have Fared in Preakness Stakes
The 13 Triple Crown winners captured both the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness (G1) en route to the Belmont (G1), but that just scratches the surface of the impact of the Run for the Roses on the middle jewel.
Preakness Stakes
Watch out when route runners are actually sprinters
It’s not uncommon to see young horses run well in their first route race, only to falter in subsequent two-turn events. A single victory running long isn’t always indicative of a true route racer in the making.
Analysis
Tall Tales of the Track: Bourbon, Bets, and the Beatles
The combination of a well-timed swig of bourbon, a fortuitous wager, and a basement music club made history not just in horse racing, but also in rock and roll.
Education
Betting Strategy: Free Roll for a Seat at the NHC
The second of five free online qualifiers for the NTRA National Horseplayers Championship (NHC) is set for this Sunday, May 14.
Education
The Heart That Wears the Crown: War Admiral
Lofty expectations are laid upon the greats when they exit stage left to enter the next phase. When Man o’ War said goodbye to his life on the track, the focus then became on whether the 20th century’s greatest racehorse could produce another one like him. Whatever it was that made Big Red so dominant and so iconic had to be passed along to his progeny, but what would that look like?
Triple Crown
When analyzing layoffs, sometimes basic handicapping trumps all
There are many ways handicappers can gauge whether a horse is ready to win off a long layoff. One of the simplest is, has the horse shown the ability to win a race like the one you’re handicapping?
Analysis
Catching My Eye: Brian Hernandez Jr. and Reylu Gutierrez at Keeneland
Two jockeys had big days at Keeneland on Saturday. Brian Hernandez Jr. won three races including piloting home 13-1 Aunt Becca, and Rey Gutierrez bagged two, most impressively aboard 12-1 Front Run the Fed.
Analysis
When it comes to trainer stats, nuance matters
Trainer stats are among the most valuable tools horseplayers have at their disposal. But a trainer’s overall win percentage is only one part of the story.
Analysis
When three-year-olds face older horses, the class level matters
Traditional handicapping guidance explains that three-year-old Thoroughbreds are rarely ready to challenge older horses before autumn. But the equation can change at lower class levels.
Analysis
POPULAR ARTICLES
Expert advice for playing tournaments from the TwinSpires team
Coming to You Live: A History of Broadcasting the Kentucky Derby
The Impact of Horse Age on Speed and Performance
The role of jockey techniques in maximizing horse speed
Each-way bets in horse racing explained: places, payoffs, and examples
VIDEOS
LATEST