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Analyzing the running styles of 2021 Kentucky Derby contenders
Post positions for the 2021 Kentucky Derby were drawn on Tuesday, the last step necessary for handicappers to finalize their pace predictions and guesstimate which horses will receive ideal trips.
Kentucky Derby
4 jockey stats to know for Kentucky Derby week at Churchill Downs
If you’re a bettor who factors jockey assignments into your handicapping, we’ve got a handful of stats and facts for you to keep in mind during Kentucky Derby week at Churchill Downs:
Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby Jockey Profile: Luis Saez
The rise of jockey Luis Saez has been meteoric. Ever since he started riding, he’s been a force to be reckoned with.
Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby Jockey Profile: Mike Smith
The 55-year-old from New Mexico has partnered with some of racing’s most legendary horses since picking up his first official victory.
Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby Jockey Profile: Ricardo Santana Jr.
It’s safe to say Ricardo Santana Jr. is a jockey on the rise. The 28-year-old from Panama has made almost uninterrupted progress since September 2009.
Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby Jockey Profile: Joel Rosario
Jockey Joel Rosario. Few North American jockeys have enjoyed greater or more sustained success over the last decade than Joel Rosario.
Education
2021 Kentucky Derby: Brisnet Speed Rating Report
The Kentucky Derby is the most analyzed race in North America, and Brisnet Speed ratings serve as a useful handicapping tool for the big event.
Kentucky Derby
What is the History of the Word Handicapping?
Would you believe that the word "handicapping" actually originated from a bar game?
History
What is the History of the Word Betting?
Betting was formally introduced into history by tracing back to both Ancient China and Ancient Greece.
History
What is the History of Simulcasting?
Coined in the 1940’s, the term "simulcast" is a combination of the words "simultaneous" and "broadcast."
History
What is the History of Wagering?
The word “wager” traces back to the 14th century Middle English term “wageure,” which means to make a solemn pledge or vow. Wager has since evolved to refer to betting.
History
Horse racing: Finding an edge in claiming conditions
Spotting changes in claiming-race conditions can lead to profitable wagers.
Analysis
5 tips for playing Vertical Exotics: Part 2
Vertical wagers are some of the most exciting, and potentially lucrative, bets throughout a racing card. Part 1 of this series was focused on explaining what they were. I will take the next step in this piece.
Education
5 Tips for playing Horizontal Exotics: Part 2
The popularity of multi-race plays has ascended rapidly in recent years, and the growth of them doesn’t appear to be slowing down, either. Part 1 of this segment was focused on explaining what horizontal wagers were and how to implement them into your betting practices. I will go a step farther in this piece.
Education
5 Tips for playing Vertical Exotics: Part 1
Wagering on vertical exotics gives handicappers various options to make investments in a single race. Here is what vertical wagers entail.
Education
5 Tips for Playing Horizontal Exotics: Part 1
While the win-place-show model has been in place for some time, the recent growth of exotic wagers can be confusing to both the novice and newcomer.
Education
5 Tips for new players betting maiden races
Betting maiden races can be a challenge for inexperienced bettors. With little to analyze, how do you decide which horse is ready to win?
Education
Four tips for handicapping first time starters
Wagering on horse racing is not an easy task. And what presents an even more difficult assignment to many is how to bet on first-time starters.
Education
Three tips for betting the Pick 5
The Pick 5 is one of the best wagers on the menu at Churchill Downs. With its low 15% takeout and $0.50 minimum, it's good for beginners and experts alike.
Education
Handicapping 101: How smart ticket building can increase profits
It happens all the time—a handicapper determines Horse #3 is a near-certain winner. They determine Horses #5 and #7 are the most likely to finish second, while rating a slim chance to beat Horse #3 across the finish line.
So what does this handica ...
Education
Six things to know about Australian horse racing
Racing in Australia has a lot to offer, but there are a few key differences from North American racing that bettors should keep in mind when preparing to play.
International
Step-by-step: Building an exacta ticket
As one of the oldest exotic wagers in horse racing, the exacta is practically as recognizable as the traditional win/place/show wagers the sport has long been known for.
The exacta requires bettors to select the top two finishers of a race ...
Education
Step-by-Step: Building a Pick 3 ticket
Constructing a Pick 3 ticket should be an easy task. The wager is straightforward and simple—pick the winners of three straight races and reap a nice reward.
But to play the Pick 3 effectively involves a little more forethought and strategy. W ...
Education
Exclusive: Money Management for Winners by Frank Scantoni
Effective money management is crucial to long-term success. If you want to conquer the gambling world, you need to have the proper money-management skills to protect your bankroll but also help it grow year in and year out.
Analysis
How To Bet Horse Racing Podcast: Pedigree Handicapping the Kentucky Derby
The most common question when handicapping the Kentucky Derby after "Who do you like" is "Can he get the distance?" A horse's pedigree is often used to help identify horses with a potential ability for 1 1/4 miles on dirt, but it can provide many ...
Pedigree
Using Trainer Angles in Handicapping, Part 5
You’ve probably heard the talk—the talk of how trainer has become essentially unbeatable with his two-year-olds.
Maybe “unbeatable” is a bit of a stretch, but it isn’t far from the truth either. In 2018, Baffert’s two-year-olds compiled an otherw ...
Education
Tips and Trends for Handicapping Marathons
Marathon horse races held over 1 ¾ miles or farther aren’t all that common in North America, and when they are on the agenda, some handicappers find themselves puzzled by the unusual challenge of handicapping such long-distance races.
What do you ...
Education
Betting Regional Class Advantages, Part 2
In a recent article here on TwinSpires, we discussed how regional class advantages can exist throughout the sport of horse racing and produce to profitable wagering opportunities.
Analysis
Betting Regional Class Advantages, Part 1
While the old saying “a good horse can come from anywhere” is certainly true, it’s also true that good horses are more likely to come from some places than others.
A great example comes from California, where a greater emphasis is placed on dirt r ...
Analysis
Betting Races on Soft Turf, Part 1: Why Europeans Can Have an Edge
Relatively speaking, racehorses in North America don’t get many opportunities to run on truly soft, rain-inundated turf courses. When heavy rains strike, turf races are frequently transferred to the dirt track in order to preserve the grass.
But i ...
International
Should You Bet Horses Returning on Short Rest?
Although there has been a tendency in recent years for trainers to give their horses more and more time between races, there are some trainers still willing to run their horses back in a week or less, and when you can identify a trainer who’s skille ...
Analysis
Exploring the Advantages of First-Time Lasix
If you’ve followed horse racing for any amount of time, you’ve probably heard phrases like “first-time Lasix” or “racing without Lasix.” But what does it all mean?
For the most part, racehorses in North America are treated with Lasix a few hours p ...
Analysis
Deciphering Track Biases, Part 2
Wouldn’t it be nice if we could predict when track biases will appear and wager accordingly, yielding impressive profits while simultaneous gaining some bragging rights?
Perhaps it sounds far-fetched, but truthfully, it’s not as hard as it sounds. ...
Analysis
Deciphering Track Biases, Part 1
Track biases… is there a more mysterious aspect of handicapping horse races? Maybe, but I'm not sure what it would be.
In essence, track biases are simple enough. Their name says it all—some tracks can be biased toward horses racing on the lead, o ...
Analysis
How to Bet the Double
We’ll explain the terminology, introduce you to the different types of bets, and provide tips on how to effectively structure your tickets.
Education
Synthetic to Dirt: A Valuable, Overlooked Angle
Although the glory days of synthetic racetracks seem to be over in North America—tracks like Santa Anita, Del Mar, and Keeneland have all gone back to dirt in recent years—many synthetic racing surfaces remain installed at tracks across the continen ...
Education
How to Bet the Trifecta
We’ll explain the terminology, introduce you to the different types of bets, and provide tips on how to effectively structure your tickets.
Education
From Grade 1 to Grade 3: A Significant Class Drop
It’s easy to understand how significant it can be when a racehorse drops from one class level to a lower class level. As we’ve discussed in the past, when a horse drops from a maiden special weight to a maiden claiming race , the easier competiti ...
Education
How to bet the exacta
We’ll introduce you to the different types of bets, explain the terminology, and provide tips on how to effectively structure your tickets. Let's kick things off by taking a look at the "exacta."
Education
Using Trainer Angles in Handicapping, Part 4
Many handicappers know the value of analyzing a trainer’s record with first-time starters. Some trainers, like Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher, are renowned for the ability to send out race-ready horses to win their debuts, and knowing this can be hel ...
Education
When to Bet Sprinters Stretching Out in Distance
Thoroughbred horse races are held over a wide variety of distances—it’s part of what makes the sport so interesting.
But as a handicapper, how do you know if a horse that has been competing in sprint races can be competitive while stretching out t ...
Education
Using Trainer Angles in Handicapping, Part 3: Blinkers
Question: What do American Pharoah, Justify, Arrogate, Bayern, Dortmund, West Coast, Mastery, and Dream Tree all have in common?
Answer: They all won Grade 1 races for Hall of Fame trainer , and furthermore, they all won their second career starts ...
Education
Maiden Special Weight to Maiden Claiming: A Classic Class Drop
In the sport of horse racing, you’ll often hear handicappers refer to horses that are “dropping in class.”
The definition of dropping in class is simple—it means that a given horse is going to be facing easier competition than in his previous star ...
Analysis
Betting First-Time Starters in Maiden Claiming Races
Once in a while, handicappers will come across a maiden race filled with horses that seemingly lack the desire or inclination to win.
This can be particularly evident in maiden claiming races, the lowest category of races for horses that have neve ...
Analysis
History Can Be Your Guide in Graded Stakes Races
In theory, it seems sensible that handicappers should approach every race the same way and utilize their preferred methods of analysis to determine the most likely winner.
In practice, this is far from the case. Different types of races warrant di ...
Education
Using Trainer Angles in Handicapping, Part 2
The history of horse racing is filled with rags-to-riches stories of horses rising from humble beginnings to enjoy success at the highest levels of the sport.
Legendary Hall of Fame inductees such as Lava Man and Stymie have taken the “claim-to-fa ...
Analysis
How Grass Pedigrees Can Provide Value in Turf Races
It’s easy to assume that once a horse has started its racing career and run in a few races, its pedigree is no longer an important factor to consider in handicapping.
While this might be true in some cases, there are still many instances when pedi ...
Pedigree
How Knowing a Horse's Family History Can Lead to Winning Bets
When handicapping horse races, it can be a subtle but significant advantage to know the history of a given horse’s close relatives and the circumstances under which they excelled on the track.
One of my favorite examples involves a broodmare named ...
Education
Using Trainer Angles in Handicapping, Part 1
Handicapping horse races involves many factors, and among the most popular (and lucrative) is analyzing the records of trainers to identify the areas where they excel.
For examples, some trainers—such as the two-time Eclipse Award winner —have an ...
Education
How to Play the Trifecta Like an Exacta
When playing trifectas, one of my favorite strategies is to look for races in which two horses appear clearly better than the rest of the field.
In these situations, playing the two standout horses in the first and second positions can allow you t ...
Education
Taking a Contrary Approach in Multi-Race Wagers
In the sport of horse racing, there are two main types of “exotic” wagers separate from the tried-and-true win, place, and show bets that have existed for years.
The first group of exotic wagers, commonly referred to as “vertical exotics” or “ ...
Education
Pedigree Handicapping: From Dirt to Turf to the Winner's Circle
When a horse tries a different racing surface for the first time, it can be difficult for handicappers to know what to expect. For example, if the horse has been racing on dirt, how will they react when switching to turf?
Due to the uncertainty in ...
Pedigree
How One Simple Trend Led to a Winning Pick 6
With all of the recent excitement over the huge “Rainbow Pick 6” carryover at Gulfstream Park , I got to thinking about a different Rainbow Pick 6 sequence from 2011, a sequence that emphasized the advantages that can be gained from following all t ...
Trends
Arrogate setting a track record in the Travers Stakes (gr. I) - Susie Raisher/Coglianese Photography
How Fast Finishes Can Identify Future Stars
How can you tell when a young, lightly-raced horse has the talent to step up in class and become a winner at the highest levels of the sport?
There are many ways to judge the merits of a young racehorse, but one factor I’ve routinely found valuabl ...
Analysis
Using Speed Figures to Identify Standout Contenders
A couple weeks ago, I described how using the “all” button in exactas can lead to impressive payoffs if you have a strong opinion of one horse in a given race.
One of the examples I used was California Chrome in the 2014 Kentucky Derby—on pa ...
Education
Betting Longshots to Turn the Tables on Favorites
When Horse A beats Horse B in decisive fashion, it’s natural for bettors to assume that the result will be the same should Horse A and Horse B meet again a few weeks later.
While this is frequently the case, there are occasions when Horse B is abl ...
Education
Betting Exactas With the "All" Button
The “all” button.
Sometimes, you’ll hear handicappers refer to the “all” button when they’re betting on a particularly tough race. For example, they might be playing a Pick 4 in which the last leg looks wide-open with a chance for a longshot win ...
Education
How Pace Makes the Race: Part 2
In an article on Bet America last week , I discussed how the 2013 Triple Crown series is a perfect example of how pace can make a race.
When Orb produced a huge late rally to win the Kentucky Derby (gr. I), he looked like a star in the making, ...
Analysis
How Pace Makes the Race: Part 1
Pace makes the race. It’s an indisputable fact of Thoroughbred horse racing that the pace at which a given race unfolds can have an effect on the outcome.
A slow pace can favor front-runners, allowing them to finish strongly and hold off late runn ...
Analysis
How Horses for Courses Can Produce Big Payoffs
“Horse for the course” is a phrase frequently heard in the sport of horse racing. Some horses have a preference for the conditions at certain racetracks, whether it’s the type of racing surface installed, the direction or sharpness of the turns, or ...
Education
Handicapping 101: Playing Pedigrees on Muddy Tracks
When handicapping major races like the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) , it’s easy to be overwhelmed by the amount of data available to help you make your selections.
Fractional times? Workouts? Running styles? Pedigrees? Jockey assignments? Post position ...
Pedigree
When is it a dead heat?
What is a dead heat? According the Cambridge English Dictionary, it is “a race in which two or more competitors finish at exactly the same time: The two horses finished in a dead heat.”
But that ...
Education
Lessons learned in Handicapping Contests
If the definition of insanity is “Doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results,” what is the definition of preaching one thing and then doing something else?
Breeders Cup
Getting to Know Australian Racing (3/3)
As we all know, the weather plays a very important part in horse racing. In the United States, a deluge of rain could turn a course upside down. First and more than likely, every turf race scheduled for that day will be taken off the course and put o ...
International
Understanding Australian Horse Racing (Part 2/3)
In America, we actually take a different approach then most countries, when it comes to what betting number horse will be coming out of what post position.
In Australia and most other countries, betting the 1 horse does not mean your getting the ...
International
Understanding Australian Horse Racing (Part 1/3)
This is the first of a three part series on Australian horse racing.
International