Horse racing data analytics: What data matters most for betting?

Betting on horse races is a data-driven endeavor. Data analytics is a huge component of handicapping. The number of data points that can be compiled, crunched, and considered is almost endless.

Which data points matter most when betting on horse races? Opinions will vary, but few handicappers will argue against the importance of the following six data points:

Speed figures

Speed figures, such as Brisnet Speed ratings, are critical to gauge which horses have run fastest in the past. Analyzing speed figures allows bettors to quickly gain a broad idea of which horse(s) have the best chance to win any given race.

Proven form over surface, distance, class level

It’s not uncommon for horses to win when racing over a new surface, distance, or class level. But proven form over a particular configuration is an important and encouraging data point for betting. Proven form can be particularly lucrative if a horse is returning to a configuration over which they’ve previously been successful.

Incremental pace fractions

Analyzing incremental pace fractions is an excellent way to uncover horses with deceptively strong credentials. For example, if a horse runs the final quarter-mile of a one-mile race in :23.40, they’ve shown excellent closing speed and may be capable of running a faster final time if asked to use their speed earlier in a race.

Trainer statistics

When a horse is trying a new distance or surface—or even racing for the first time—trainer statistics come in handy. If a trainer wins at a 30% rate with horses switching from dirt to turf, any horse who fits that profile should be respected. Pay special attention to trainer statistics that generate a profitable return on investment (ROI), which means betting the same amount on every relevant horse would have yielded a profit.

Jockey statistics

Jockey statistics are another helpful data point. Some jockeys enjoy more success riding on turf than on dirt, or in routes rather than sprints, or vice versa. Strong winning percentages (over 20%) and profitable ROIs are a good sign when planning a bet.

Odds

Arguably the single most important data point when planning a bet is the odds you’ll be getting. If you think a horse has a 33% chance at winning a race, that’s great—but only if his odds are higher than 2-1, which represents the corresponding 1-in-3 chance of winning. If you consistently place bets at lower than fair odds, you’ll win occasionally, but lose money in the long run.

Value these six data points, and you’ll be well on your way to successfully betting on horse races.