How to pick the winner of a horse race: Step-by-step guide

Picking the winner of a horse race isn’t as hard as it seems. Even in races with many horses, thorough analysis can consistently uncover winning horses.

Our step-by-step guide will walk you through the process:

1. Consider the conditions of the race you’re handicapping

First, read the conditions of the race. This includes the distance (six furlongs, one mile, etc.), the surface (dirt, turf, or synthetic), and the eligibility criteria. Is the race for fillies and mares ages four and older? Louisiana-bred three-year-olds who have never won three races? The race conditions are the lens through which all other data must be considered.

2. Review the past performances of each horse

Keeping the race conditions in mind, review the past performances of each horse. Look for horses who have run well under similar conditions in the past. Use Brisnet Speed ratings to determine which horses have run fastest, and which may be improving or regressing. Then consider the field as a whole—is the race packed with frontrunners who will ensure a fast pace, or will a lack of pace favor a lone speed horse? 

3. Analyze statistics, including jockey, trainer, and pedigree stats

If a horse has never raced, or has never tackled today’s race conditions, jockey, trainer, and pedigree statistics can help you determine whether victory is likely or unlikely. If the trainer wins at a high rate (above 20%) with horses switching from dirt to turf, that’s a positive if it applies to the horse you’re handicapping. Pedigree statistics, such as the sire and dam stats found in Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances, can also provide helpful clues.

4. Watch race replays to glean additional clues

Past performances and result charts contain lots of helpful handicapping information, but watching race replays is important too. You might spot a subtly troubled trip—like a horse getting shuffled back in traffic at a key point in the race—that other bettors overlook.

5. Compare the win chance of each horse against their odds

You’ve finished handicapping, now it’s time to choose your horse. Assign a likelihood of winning to each horse in the race—perhaps Horse #1 at 33%, Horse #2 at 17%, Horse #3 at 10%, etc. The percentages should add up to 100%. Then compare the win chances of each horse to their betting odds.  The table below shows how odds and win chances correlate. If you believe the likeliest winner has a 33% chance at winning, and his or her odds are meaningfully higher than 2-1, you’ve found a good bet.

It’s impossible to select 100% winners, but following these five steps will help you pick horse race winners on a regular basis. Good luck!