Ellis Park: Analyzing the $3,295 Super High 5 carryover

If you want to win a share of Sunday’s $3,295 Super High 5 carryover at Ellis Park, you’ll have to decipher Race 1, a maiden special weight for two-year-olds racing one mile on turf.

The overflow field is packed with first-time starters. Not sure which to include on your tickets? Let’s check them out and rate their chances:

#1 Reagan’s Wit (6-1): Son of Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Authentic brings a decent slate of half-mile workouts into his debut, but trainer Cherie DeVaux has gone 5-0-0-0 debuting juveniles in turf routes at Ellis Park since 2019. Fourth or fifth place might be the ceiling for Reagan’s Wit’s potential.

#2 Train and Trust (20-1): Trainer John Langemeier wins at a respectable 17% rate with first-time starters, but has gone 0-for-3 debuting horses on turf in recent years. Train and Trust’s workout times are on the slow side, and he’s a son of Tapiture, who sires only 6% winners from first-time turf starters. Others appear more likely to finish in the top five.

#3 Tiz a Showdown (20-1): The workout times of Tiz a Showdown haven’t been especially flashy. He’s a son of Mohaymen, who sires 4% winners from first-time turf starters, and trainer James Baker has gone 0-for-2 debuting horses on turf in recent years. A top-five finish could be tricky to secure.

#4 R Y d’Oro (8-1): Medaglia d’Oro sires a respectable 12% winners from first-time turf starters, while trainer Tom Amoss strikes 9% of the time with horses debuting on turf. R Y d’Oro has posted half a dozen five-furlong workouts and should be fit to race one mile. A logical contender.

#5 Modern Master (4-1): Trainer Chad Brown wins at an 18% rate with horses debuting on turf, but has gone 0-for-3 debuting juveniles over the Ellis Park lawn since 2023. As a son of Curlin out of a Tapit mare, Modern Master is bred to handle one mile. Use him underneath.

#7 Fleming (5-2): Trainer Brendan Walsh has gone 2-for-7 (29%) debuting juveniles in turf routes at Ellis since 2023. Fleming has the pedigree to shine on turf and has posted encouraging half-mile workouts at Keeneland and Turfway Park. Jockey Luan Machado has gone 4-for-10 (40%) teaming up with Walsh over the last two months, so Fleming looms as a win threat.

#10 Gave Proof (10-1): Trainer William Cowans wins at a flashy 31% rate with first-time starters, but has gone 0-for-11 debuting horses on turf in recent years. Slow workout times suggest Gave Proof has only an outside chance to finish in the top five.

#12 Reverse Merger (7-2): The second of four also-eligible entrants is a son of Into Mischief, who sires 13% winners from first-time turf starters. Reverse Merger’s workouts have been sharp, including a bullet half-mile in :47 at Churchill Downs, but trainer Norm Casse (an 11% winner with first-time starters) has gone 0-for-14 debuting horses on grass in recent years. A spot in the top two or three is manageable, but victory may prove elusive.

#13 Captain Junuh (15-1): The third also-eligible entrant brings a modest work tab to the table for trainer Mark Casse, who has gone 4-0-0-0 debuting juveniles over the Ellis lawn since 2019. As a son of Free Drop Billy, who sires 7% winners from first-time turf starters, Captain Junuh could find it difficult to land a top-five finish.

Among the first-time starters, Fleming is our top choice, while R Y d’Oro, Modern Master, and Reverse Merger are worth using underneath. Mix and match them with experienced runners like #11 Zap d’Etat (6-1) and #9 I’m Otter Here (6-1).

Good luck!