Ellis Park: First-timers to play in the $3,136 Super High 5 carryover

There’s a $3,136 Super High 5 carryover up for grabs in Saturday’s first race at Ellis Park, a $50,000 maiden optional claimer for two-year-olds dashing 5 1/2 furlongs on turf.

Handicapping the field isn’t easy. Eight of the 13 entrants (including one also-eligible) are first-time starters without any form lines to analyze. We’ll have to rely on pedigrees, workouts, and trainer stats to get a feel for which of the debuting runners will prove competitive.

To save you the effort, we’ve gone through the entries and identified three first-time starters worth including on your tickets.

#12 Very Bold (7-2) – The slight morning-line favorite is a dangerous win threat even while breaking from an outside post. Trainer Eoin Harty has been on fire with two-year-old first-time starters are Ellis Park this meet, going 3-for-4 (75%) overall and 2-for-3 (67%) on turf. 

Very Bold enters off a bullet half-mile workout from the Turfway Park starting gate in :48 and is slated to be ridden by Rafael Bejarano, who has gone 2-for-2 teaming up with Harty over the last two months. Suffice to say, the stats suggest there’s a strong chance Very Bold will prove competitive.

#5 Wayllen Richard (15-1) – Trainer Wayne Catalano wins at a respectable 14% rate with all first-time starters, but that win rate jumps dramatically to 36% with horses debuting on turf. 

Wayllen Richard has turned in a trio of five-furlong workouts in preparation for his debut, and his dam (One Other Than) has foaled eight winners from nine starters, so there’s quite a bit to like about this 15-1 longshot. Throw in the fact Wayllen Richard will be guided by jockey Irving Moncada, who rides with a seven-pound weight allowance, and the chestnut colt is worth using prominently in the Super High 5.

#2 Captain Fancy (12-1) – A son of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) winner Mendelssohn, who sires 13% winners on grass, Captain Fancy clocked a bullet three furlongs from the Churchill Downs starting gate in :37 1/5 last month. 

Trainer Greg Foley wins at a solid 18% rate with horses debuting on turf and 40% of his two-year-old first-time starters at Ellis since 2019 have finished in the top three, so Captain Fancy is worth including at least in the bottom few slots of the Super High 5.

Good luck!