Ellis Park: Horses to bet in the $26,756 Super High 5 carryover

The Super High 5 proved elusive on Saturday at Ellis Park. The $1 wager went unsolved in each of the final five races on the card, producing a $26,756 quintuple carryover into Race 1 on Sunday.

If you want to win a share of the prize pool, you’d best come prepared for a stiff handicapping challenge. Race 1 is a $50,000 maiden optional claimer for two-year-old fillies sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on turf. A huge field has entered: 12 horses in the main body of the field, plus four more on the also-eligible list.

In order to make ticket assembly affordable, we have to take a stand somewhere. We recommend keying morning line favorite #3 Little Mo (5-2) on top. The daughter of Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner Honor A. P. appears to have a viable path to the winner’s circle.

Little Mo debuted over this course, distance, and class level on July 21. After rating behind a hot pace in eighth place, she closed ground nicely to finish third against nine rivals, earning a 71 Brisnet Speed rating that is tied for the highest number in Sunday’s field and only four points below the par winning Brisnet Speed rating (75) for Sunday’s conditions.

Little Mo has since breezed a bullet half-mile for trainer Peter Eurton, who wins at a lofty 26% rate with second-time starters. That far exceeds Eurton’s typical win rate with first-time starters, which is 8% since 2000. There’s a strong chance Little Mo will move forward on Sunday, setting the stage for a winning run.

Who are the key contenders to use underneath? #6 Oklahoma Logic (7-2) carved out the pace in a maiden special weight over this course and distance on July 27 before weakening to finish fourth by 4 3/4 lengths. Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen wins at a 22% rate with second-time grass starters, so another top-four finish is likely within reach for Oklahoma Logic.

Also, #4 Melittlefrostgirl (12-1) shouldn’t be underestimated. She posted a 71 Brisnet Speed rating when finishing second on debut in a $100,000 maiden claimer sprinting five furlongs on dirt at Churchill Downs. She hasn’t been as competitive in two starts since then, but one was a 5 1/2-furlong turf maiden special weight at Ellis Park in which she challenged for command through blazing fractions of :21.27 and :44.16 before tiring to finish eighth. If Melittlefrostgirl partakes in an easier pace on Sunday, she’s eligible to improve significantly and outrun her double-digit odds.

Good luck!