Ellis Park: Horses to play in the $1,571 Super High 5 carryover

Do you like handicapping maiden races filled with first-time starters? Then why don’t you try solving Sunday’s third race at Ellis Park, which offers a $1,571 carryover in the $1 Super High 5.

The race in question is a maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies racing one mile on turf. Winning a share of the carryover won’t be easy for several reasons:

• There are 14 entries, including two on the also-eligible list. That means there are 240,240 possible Super High 5 outcomes before scratches and 95,040 if you wait until race-day changes are posted and a field of 12 faces the starter.
• None of the entrants have run on turf.
• None of the entrants have run farther than 5 1/2 furlongs.
• Seven of the entrants are unraced.

Where do we even begin in handicapping such a wide-open race? For starters, we’ll afford respect to morning line favorite #5 Yellow Sun Dress (7-2). The daughter of Karakontie is bred top and bottom to thrive on turf; in fact, Karakontie won the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) and sires a lofty 19% winners from first-time turf starters. Yet Yellow Sun Dress showed talent in her debut on dirt at Keeneland, rallying from seventh place to finish fourth (beaten half a length) in a 4 1/2-furlong sprint. Given the potential she showed sprinting on dirt, stretching out on turf may trigger a winning run.

Secondly, we’ll acknowledge the first-time starter #11 Isle of Hope (4-1) as a formidable win threat. The daughter of Quality Road out of Justwhistledixie is a half-sibling to four graded stakes winners, including Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) winner New Year’s Day.

Isle of Hope’s pedigree is geared toward success on dirt, but she’s trained by Brad Cox, who has gone 6-for-17 (35%) debuting two-year-olds in turf routes at Ellis Park since 2020. That includes a 4-for-10 (40%) record with fillies. Cox knows what it takes to prepare a juvenile to debut with a winning run over the Ellis lawn, so Isle of Hope is well worth supporting.

We also have to highlight #8 Beautiful Dancer (12-1) as a live longshot. Although she showed little in her debut sprinting over the Ellis main track last month, Beautiful Dancer is the first starter produced by Del Mar Oaks (G1) winner Dream Dancing, so Beautiful Dancer’s pedigree hints running long on turf could be her strong suit. The fact Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse wins at a respectable 17% rate with second-time starters adds to the appeal.

It’s difficult to recommend actual Super High 5 tickets for this contest without seeing race-day changes, but bettors who count on Yellow Sun Dress, Isle of Hope, and Beautiful Dancer to finish in the top five should have a solid shot to cash a winning payoff.

Good luck!