Ellis Park: How to bet the $4,692 Super High 5 carryover

The first Saturday of the Ellis Park meet is a good one. The $125,000 Pea Patch S. is the feature event, and there’s a $4,692 carryover in the $1 Super High 5.

The carryover is up for grabs in Race 1, a $10,000 maiden claimer taking place over one mile on dirt. It’s a tricky race to analyze because six of the nine entrants are dropping in class, and facing easier competition could trigger meaningful improvement from any of them. But whereas most of the class droppers are coming off uninspiring performances, #9 Availability (3-1) exits a strong showing and may simply be too good for this $10,000 field.

Three starts back, Availability contested a $20,000 maiden claimer racing 1 1/16 miles at Churchill Downs. He ran strongly, dueling for the lead before weakening in the final furlong to finish third by 4 1/4 lengths with a 72 Brisnet Speed rating.

Availability subsequently misfired in a $50,000 maiden claimer, finishing last of nine, but he bounced back nicely in his most recent start. Returning to the $20,000 maiden claiming level for a 1 1/16-mile contest at Horseshoe Indianapolis, Availability tracked the pace in third place before advancing to finish second with a career-best 75 Brisnet Speed rating.

Trainer John Ennis wins at a 40% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder, so Availability should be tough to beat while tackling a $10,000 maiden claimer. The par winning Brisnet Speed rating for Saturday’s conditions at Ellis is 74, so Availability has run fast enough to win at this level. We recommend keying him on top in the Super High 5.

Underneath, we suggest emphasizing #7 Thanks Frank (7-2), who posted a 75 Speed rating when finishing third in a $10,000 maiden claimer at Churchill Downs two starts back. We’ll forgive his recent seventh-place finish against tougher $20,000 maiden claiming competition, especially since trainer Matt Shirer strikes at a 29% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder.

One longshot worth considering is #5 Malinalco (12-1). He showed next to nothing in his debut against $40,000 maiden claiming company at Oaklawn Park, but he’s since been gelded and should appreciate descending to the $10,000 level.

• $1 Super High 5: 9 with 7 with 2,5,6 with 2,4,5,6 with 2,3,4,5,6,8 ($36)
• $1 Super High 5: 9 with 5 with 7 with 2,4,6 with 2,3,4,6,8 ($12)
  Total: $48

Good luck!