Ellis Park: How to bet the $2,104 Super High 5 carryover

No one hit the $1 Super High 5 in the final race on Saturday at Ellis Park, which means there’s a $2,104 carryover on the table for Sunday’s card.

The prize pool is up for grabs in Race 2, a $40,000 claimer for fillies and mares racing one mile on dirt. With seven horses in the field, there are only 2,520 possible Super High 5 outcomes for bettors to analyze.

Yet despite the small field size, it’s a tricky race to handicap. Six of the seven entrants were beaten by 9 3/4 lengths or more in their most recent start. The only runner exiting a top-four finish is #5 Waters of Merom (8-1), who’s stepping up sharply in class after finishing second in a $16,000 claimer at Churchill Downs.

Ultimately, we have to lean toward #2 Guana Cay (3-1) as our top choice. The five-year-old mare has started three times since being claimed by trainer Juan Cano, and while two of those efforts (including her latest) produced off-the-board finishes in $80,000 allowance optional claimers, she sandwiched those defeats around a pace-tracking success in a $40,000 claimer racing 1 1/16 miles at Churchill Downs.

The form of that victory was flattered when the runner-up came back to win an allowance at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Returning to the $40,000 level should give Guana Cay every chance to visit the winner’s circle, so we’ll key her on top in the Super High 5.

Who are the other key contenders? #4 Too Pretty (9-2) misfired when finishing last in an $80,000 allowance optional claimer over the Ellis Park turf course, but her prior dirt form was solid, highlighted by a third-place finish against Arkansas-bred rivals in the one-mile Natural State Breeders’ S. at Oaklawn Park. Too Pretty has lots of early speed and figures to factor on the front end.

We can’t dismiss #7 Music Amore (6-1) either, not after she finished third (beaten only 1 1/2 lengths) against Guana Cay in the above-mentioned $40,000 claimer at Churchill Downs. And while morning line favorite #3 Mercy Warren (2-1) could potentially find this one-mile distance a little too far, she’s dropping in class out of tough sprints and should have every chance to record a top-five finish.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 2 with 4,7 with 4,7 with 1,3,6 with 1,3,5,6 ($18)
• $1 Super High 5: 2 with 4,7 with 1,3,6 with 4,7 with 1,3,5,6 ($18)
• $1 Super High 5: 2 with 4,7 with 1,3,6 with 1,3,5,6 with 4,7 ($18)
• $1 Super High 5: 2 with 1,3,6 with 4,7 with 4,7 with 1,3,5,6 ($18)
• $1 Super High 5: 2 with 1,3,6 with 4,7 with 1,3,5,6 with 4,7 ($18)
  Total: $90

Good luck!