Ellis Park: How to bet the $3,132 Super High 5 carryover

The Sunday card at Ellis Park features a $3,132 carryover in the non-jackpot Super High 5, and we’re keen to play along.

The $1 wager is available in Race 8 (post time 5:10 p.m. ET), a six-furlong maiden special weight for juvenile fillies. The field looks very competitive, so let’s review the entries in horse-by-horse fashion and plan our tickets:

Analysis

#1 Sweet Annabella (8-1): Trainer Joe Sharp is hot this meet, but strikes at just a 10% rate with first-time starters and has gone 0-for-6 debuting juveniles at Ellis this meet. Only one cracked the trifecta, finishing third, so we’ll lean against Sweet Annabella.

#2 Crimson Rose (5-2): Trainer Brad Cox has gone 5-for-24 (21%) debuting juveniles at Ellis this season, with 46% finishing in the money. Hot jockey Florent Geroux (a 27% winner when teaming up with Cox) takes the mount, so we have to give Crimson Rose a long look on the win end.

#3 An Apple a Day (12-1): Finished third in a 5 1/2-furlong turf sprint at Ellis last month, but her first three starts on dirt were unremarkable. Five of her siblings started as juveniles, but only one reached the winner’s circle, so we’ll look to oppose An Apple a Day.

#4 Malibu Marie (7-2): The second Cox trainee has been breezing well enough at Keeneland and Turfway Park, but since Cox’s go-to jockey Florent Geroux is riding Crimson Rose, we’ll rank Malibu Marie second among the two debuting stablemates.

#5 Sophie Grace (20-1): Sibling to a pair of juvenile winners is conditioned by Donnie K. Von Hemel, an 11% winner with first-time starters. Sire Violence is responsible for 16% winners from first-time starters, so Sophie Grace has some appeal as a live longshot.

#6 Coco Puff (15-1): Trainer Keith Desormeaux has gone 14-3-1-3 (21%, 50% ITM) saddling juveniles at Ellis this meet, and while he hasn’t won with five first-time starters, three of them (60%) did finish in the money. Coco Puff boasts quick workouts and is a daughter of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) winner Texas Red, stamping the bay filly as a candidate to hit the board.

#7 Swap Shop (15-1): Failed to challenge in her debut at Ellis, finishing seventh by a dozen lengths, but she stumbled shortly after the start and didn’t appear to relish racing through kickback behind rivals. Trainer Larry Jones is 1-for-1 saddling experienced juveniles at Ellis this meet, so Swap Shop is eligible to improve in her second run.

#8 Sugar Boo (12-1): Hot trainer Ian Wilkes wins at just a 5% rate with first-time starters, though his 9-0-3-1 record debuting juveniles at Ellis this season isn’t bad. Sugar Boo has been clocking fast workouts and is a daughter of Distorted Humor, who sires 15% winners from first-time starters, so she can’t be counted out.

#9 Murgatroyd (15-1): Cracked the trifecta a couple of times against maiden special weight company at Churchill Downs, but faded in her most recent effort at Ellis, finishing seventh. She may need improvement to challenge.

#10 Jerusalema (10-1): Sire Super Saver won the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) as a juvenile, and trainer Brendan Walsh has gone 14-2-3-2 (14%, 50% ITM) debuting two-year-olds at Ellis this meet. Jerusalema is a contender to hit the board.

#11 Peligroso (12-1): Trainer Jack Sisterson is a 20% winner at Ellis this meet, but he strikes at just a 7% rate overall with first-time starters, and his first two debuting juveniles at Ellis this year both finished out of the trifecta. We’ll try to beat Peligroso in the Super High 5.

#12 Lavendar Lane (8-1): Carved out the pace in her debut at Ellis before fading to finish fourth. A wide trip could be in the offing from the outside draw, so we’ll play against Lavendar Lane.

#13 (AE) Gimme Mo Baby (20-1): The first also-eligible hasn’t been especially flashy in the mornings and will break from a wide post if she’s able to start, two factors contributing to her longshot status.

#14 (AE) Jillian’s Star (20-1): Got pulled up and vanned off in her Aug. 7 debut at Ellis and will need a form turnaround to challenge in her second run under colors.

#15 (AE) Sassy Sagey (8-1): The third and final also-eligible has posted promising workouts for trainer Tom Amoss, a 24% winner with runners debuting in maiden special weights. Sire Classic Empire (a champion juvenile) is off to a hot start at stud with 28% winners from first-time starters, so Sassy Sagey is worth including if she draws in.

The tickets

We’ll key Crimson Rose on top while emphasizing Malibu Marie, Sugar Boo, Jerusalema, and Sassy Sagey underneath:

$1 Super High 5: 2 with 4,8,10,15 with 4,8,10,15 with 4,8,10,15 with 4,5,6,7,8,10,15 ($96)

If Sassy Sagey fails to draw in off the also-eligible list, we’ll play an alternate ticket spreading deeper for fourth place:

$1 Super High 5: 2 with 4,8,10 with 4,8,10 with 4,5,6,7,8,10 with 4,5,6,7,8,10 ($72)

Good luck!