Ellis Park Pick 5 Play for Aug. 20

Rains keep coming in Louisiana, so I’m shifting my Pick 5 play this week north to Ellis Park. It’s an interesting sequence with two I feel confident enough to single, several middle prices I am interested in, and a key spot in Race 7 where I feel my opinion will separate me from other Pick 5 tickets. I will play my “All As” ticket multiple times and play my All As and Bs just once.

50-cent Pick 5 Wagers

• All As: $12
• All As and Bs: $28

Race 4 - Allowance/optional claiming, 1 1/8 miles 

Evenly matched group here in terms of Brisnet Prime Power, Class Rating, and running style. I could make a case for each, but #3 Search Engine (3-1) could be loose on the lead in here and will likely be bet as such. I’ll go one deeper with #6 Creed (9-5) who exits a tough Saratoga race against Stage Raider and next-out-winner The Reds. In his first race after a year off, he went two-wide in the first turn and five-wide in the second. Should be fit and ready to fire for this one.

Race 5 - Starter allowance, one mile on turf

It took a while for #3 Dynablue (2-1) to win one, and he had certainly earned the seconditis diagnosis. But in his 12th start on grass he figured it out last November, and he has not lost on the turf since, going for 3-for-3 and coming in on a two-race win streak. There should be plenty of pace for this formful Poulos runner to close into.

Race 6 - Maiden, 2yo fillies, 5 1/2 furlongs on turf 

We’ll spread and split into As and Bs in this race that has plenty of angles to sort through. I doubt we’ll get the value these morning lines suggest, but either way I will press my opinion on the As.

As: #8 Mystify (12-1) enters out of Davis’ barn who wins with 14% first-timers, 15% when debuting on turf. The Kantharos first-timer #9 Greek Heiress (6-1) debuts for Mark Casse --pedigree (15% first turf), trainer (14% debut runners), and flashy works make him enticing. Front speed has won 10 out of 12 on turf sprints so far this meet, and #10 Bling (10-1) might be the one to catch. Flashing early speed on the dirt in her first try, always a positive, Bejarano stays up to try to capitalize on the strong 12% first-time turf stats from this American Pharoah.

Bs: #1 Chanel Point (6-1) could prove dangerous trying turf for the first time, and it’s no secret Catalano knows when to turn the light green, winning 20% of his last 40 first tries on the grass.

I suspect we’ll get a fair price given the connections of #4 Catcha Later Mo (15-1) but given the bias of the track, let’s roll the dice for a price. #5 Collected Glory (3-1) has put in two good efforts and should show early speed. #6 Holy Foley (9-2) has two races under her belt and should take to the turf on first try. 

Race 7 - Allowance, six furlongs

#5 Marching (12-1) was in the deep end last year facing Olympiad, Baby Yoda, Stage Raider, and Prevalence. Switches barns, takes a near year-long layoff, returns to the track of his only win, and attracts Brian Hernandez Jr. to the saddle. Given who I think will go off as favorites in the other legs, I will separate from the crowd here, where there are four other logical, short-priced contenders that will be in some combination on most tickets.

Race 8 - Starter allowance, one mile on turf

#1 Arlyne’s Crown (6-1) has the early speed for this sprint-to-route, dirt-to-turf rail bid. 

#3 Legerity (4-1) earned a strong Speed figure first time on the turf, and makes her third start off a layoff after showing improving form sprinting at Ellis. #7 Mission Belle (8-1) finished behind Social Engagement but enters Hernandez’s barn who wins 20% off the claim. #8 Social Engagement (12-1) went to the grass last time and scored for Walsh--surely we won’t get this price, but either way, we want to use on top assuming she’ll improve off that strong first effort.