Ellis Park racing trends 2023: Trainer & Jockey Stats, Biases, Successful Pedigrees

Living racing will arrive early at Ellis Park in 2023, as Churchill Downs announced it will move the remainder of its Spring Meet to the Henderson, Kentucky racetrack.

Beginning on Saturday, June 10, Ellis Park will host a 10-race card originally scheduled at Churchill. The Spring Meet will run through July 3, with the new safety initiatives announced by Churchill earlier in the week remaining in effect at Ellis.

The traditional Summer Meet at Ellis Park will kick off July 7 and concludes Aug. 27, and will feature record purses of more than $14 million across the 24-day meet. Eighteen total stakes are on tap, including the $300,000 Pucker Up (G3) for three-year-old fillies on Aug. 6 and the $250,000 Ellis Park Derby for three-year-olds.

To get you ready for racing at Ellis, we examine some of the top racing trends at the century-old track, from trainer, jockey, and sire win percentages to track biases across difference surfaces.

Brad Cox and Steve Asmussen kicked off the first half of the 2023 Churchill Spring Meet with the first and second most victories, respectively, among trainers. At Ellis, they have been just as dominant.

Dating back to 2018, Asmussen has recorded the most wins, with 50, three more than Cox. The Hall of Fame trainer also saddled the 2021 winner of the Ellis Park Derby, Super Stock.

Cox's win percentage is a bit higher than Asmussen's, however, striking at a 29% rate out of 163 races, compared to Asmussen's 15% win rate out of 330 starts. Among top win percentages, Chris Hartman has also seen a high rate of success, going 20-for-70 (28.5%) since 2018.

Top trainers on turf since 2018

On turf, Cox takes the title as top trainer, with 37 victories out of 124 starts (29.8% win percentage), followed by Mike Maker (24-for-113), Ian Wilkes (19-for-108), and Brendan Walsh (18-for-126).

Walsh, Cox, Kenny McPeek, and Greg Foley each boast a win percentage of 19% or higher on turf over the last five years at Ellis, while Wayne Catalano is an impressive 46% winner from a small sample size of 13 turf races.

Among the leading jockeys at Ellis, Brian Hernandez Jr. and Corey Lanerie are narrowly separated by two victories, with Hernandez owning 53 wins from 286 starts and Lanerie scoring 51 from 311 rides.

Hernandez won the Ellis Park Derby aboard Art Collector in 2020, while Lanerie won the year prior with Gray Magician.

Gabriel Saez, fifth in jockey wins since 2018, triumphed in the inaugural Ellis Park Derby in 2018 with Believe in Royalty.

Top jockeys on turf since 2018

On the Ellis Park lawn, James Graham has been most successful over the last five years, scoring 45 wins from 276 mounts, while Lanerie is again second on the list, with 37 victories from 230 starts.

Hernandez is third (33-for-231), while Adam Beschizza (24-for-208) and Shaun Bridgmohan (22-for-90) round out the top five.

Hot trainer-jockey combos at Ellis Park

Bridgmohan also makes up one half of the leading trainer/jockey combo at Ellis, notching 34 wins from 95 starts when paired up with Brad Cox.

The second most successful trainer/jockey duo is another Cox pairing, with Florent Geroux. Together, the two have earned 23 victories from 86 starts and collected more than $1 million in earnings at the track.

Hernandez has been most successful when riding for McPeek (20-for-96), while the combo of Tyler Baze and Asmussen has gone 20-for-113 since 2018.

Chris Landeros is Wilkes' top rider at Ellis, having reached the winner's circle in 16 of 88 starts when paired with the trainer.

Four-time leading North American sire Into Mischief has produced the most winners at Ellis since 2018, with 25 victories, beating out 2007 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Street Sense (20).

Into Mischief will be well-represented at Ellis Park on Saturday and Sunday, June 10-11, with the likes of Extra Anejo, a $1.3 million purchase at the Keeneland September Yearling Sale, graded stakes-placed Classic Legacy, as well as McPeek-trained filly Lady Puchi among his progeny racing at the track.

Successful sires Curlin, Violence, and Ghostzapper are next in line, with 12 wins apiece at Ellis, followed by Belmont S. (G1) champion Union Rags and Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) winner Speightstown, with 11.

On turf, Into Mischief is once again the leader (11 victories), with one more win than each of Maclean's Music and Declaration of War. More Than Ready and Candy Ride rank fourth and fifth, respectively, and appear in the bloodlines of a number of runners at Ellis the weekend of June 10-11.

Ellis Park track biases

When looking at race types and post position success, Ellis Park has seen early pacesetter types perform better than late presser/closer types on dirt.

The rail post has also produced a 20% win rate across all dirt races since 2018, while post 5 has seen horses finish in the money (ITM) at a 50% clip.

On turf, E/P and E types are winning at a 15.4% and 14.7% rate, respectively, followed by P types (13.3%), while S types (closers) have produced just a 9% rate of success. The rail post is generating the most victories, with 72 from 492 starters, while post 6 has seen a 14% win rate, with 68 victories from 473 races.