Ellis Park: Two singles for the $22,700 Pick 5 carryover

August 22nd, 2021

Editor's note: Racing has been canceled at Ellis Sunday after a fire destroyed the receiving barn. According to a statement issued by track publicity, no people were in the barn at the time, and the horses (thought to be seven) appear to have been rescued.

Which is the most appealing carryover up for grabs at a North American Thoroughbred racetrack this Sunday? Opinions will vary, but we’re voting for the $22,700 Pick 5 carryover at Ellis Park.

There’s a lot to like about the 50-cent wager, which kicks off in Race 4 at 3:14 p.m. ET. The sequence looks competitive but not inscrutable, with an average of 8.6 horses per race (46 total horses) in the entries. That adds up to 42,336 possible outcomes, so one could theoretically buy every conceivable combination for a cost of $21,168 and hope enough longshots visit the winner’s circle to make the investment worthwhile.

Of course, we don’t remotely recommend this scattershot strategy. Instead, we suggest you single a pair of promising juveniles trained by Brad Cox, cutting the number of possible outcomes down to just 672 without even glancing at the other legs. That’s a pretty good proposition, right?

These are the horses we recommend singling at short prices:

Race 5, Maiden Special Weight: #7 Beach Holiday (8-5)

No trainer has won more juvenile races at Ellis this meet than Brad Cox, whose record stands at 6-for-24 (25%). But even though Cox has won with five first-time starters, his runners typically improve with experience. Indeed, Cox’s overall 17% strike rate with first-time starters since 2016 jumps to 26% with second-time starters.

Therefore, the stats suggest Beach Holiday will be tough to beat in this one-mile maiden heat. A beautifully-bred son of leading sire Into Mischief out of the multiple Grade 1-winning route runner Cocoa Beach, Beach Holiday has the pedigree to win from an early age. He’s a half-brother to Imperia, who won the Pilgrim S. (G3) racing 1 1/16 miles as a juvenile.

Beach Holiday didn’t run badly by any means in his debut sprinting seven furlongs at Ellis last month, finishing second with a respectable 66 Brisnet Speed rating. He’s since come back to breeze a quick half-mile in :47 3/5, and hot jockey Florent Geroux (a 35% winner when teaming up with Cox) takes over the mount. If Beach Holiday improves at all, his rivals are likely running for second place.

Race 8, Maiden Special Weight: #6 Dream Music (5-2)

Geroux and Cox will team up again with Dream Music, the morning-line favorite in this one-mile turf test for juvenile fillies. The daughter of Maclean’s Music faced a tough task in her debut dashing 5 1/2 furlongs over the Ellis grass last month, racing off the pace through slow splits of :22.81 and :47.09 before rallying to finish fourth by just 3 1/4 lengths.

Brad Cox trainer stats, as listed in Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances

This effort produced an excellent 81 Brisnet Speed rating, by far the highest figure in Monday’s field. Assuming Dream Music takes a step forward in her second career start, she can win for fun. Keep in mind, Cox strikes at a 28% rate with horses running long for the first time.

Good luck!

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