Evangeline Downs Pick 5 for July 15: Finding separation by fading vulnerable favorites

Sometimes you’ve just got to take the money and run. Friday’s Pick 5 sequence at Evangeline Downs doesn’t look like one that will pay all that well. There are small fields and a steep drop off between pretenders and contenders. But still, I see a couple spots where we can find separation, aka vulnerable favorites. Let’s get skinny in our A column and play it for 10 times our usual base bet. And let’s use the Bs defensively as a saver simply to recover our costs if our As don’t come through. 

Race 4: Turf, About 5 Furlongs, Clm $12,500 (12.5-10), N2L 3yo & up

A: There’s only one horse I want in this field and that’s the #1 Sun Striker (4-1). There’s no way this horse doesn’t get bet based on figures and connections, but still, there's two other horses that will get bet as well, and I am against both. #6 Baseball Lover (3-1) — I’ve written about his maiden win before: a negative key race. Horses coming out of that race have fared poorly, and throwing this one on turf feels like a shot in the dark, but it's likely the 5 furlongs and not the surface is what connections are wanting most for this front-runner. #9 Totally Addicted (5-1) will be bet below his morning line. He has shown a few times that he runs best fresh and can't match the effort second off a layoff.

Race 5: Dirt, 5 Furlongs, Md Sp Wt $24,000, 2yo statebred fillies

A: #3 Dreamed I Am Fast (9-2) dueled with a monster who earned a 77 Beyer on debut. Trainer Chasey Pomier knows when to ship into Evangeline, winning at an over 30% rate.

B:  #4 La Vie En Rouge (8-5) ran second on first-asking to a next-out winner. Allen Landry’s stats with 2-year-olds are impressive and he has every right to improve. Coming out of the same race, #2 Tap Iron Fist (4-1) also ran well on debut and his pedigree suggests precocity. 

Race 6: Turf, About 7 1/2 Furlongs, Alw $22,000, N2L 3yo & up

A: #3 Ghost Cowboy (9-2) comes in fresh and should improve off the lone turf try, where he ran a figure higher than many of these have in the past. 22% turf jockey Joel Dominguez legs up.

B: #1 Sy Michael (6-5) & #1A Wildwood Z (6-5). The coupled entry both have a big edge in terms of Brisnet Prime Power and Class. Use only to recover the cost of our bet, maybe make enough to buy the kids a pizza.

Race 7: Dirt, 7 Furlongs, Clm $10,000, N3L 3yo & up statebred fillies

A: #1 Tugboat (2-1) beat two in here last out but lost to a nice effort from Moment to Dream. Should be on or near the lead and ready to repeat his top efforts. #6 Our Little Girl (9-2) takes a huge class drop but also shortens up to a distance she has not had success at. #7 Bettison (3-1) put it all together last time and now moves up to face non-winners of 3. Dangerous. 

Race 8: Turf, About 5 Furlongs, Md $12,500, 3yo & up statebreds

A: #6 Joey’s Lightning (12-1) has the turf pedigree and the connections to win at a price on debut. #7 Target Practice (4-1) has the turf pedigree to win on first try (13%) and Pomier does well with 2nd-time starters. #8 T D Z Hi Court (5-2) should be gunning to the lead for his second turf try. Looked good fighting to the end last out.

B: Like the earlier coupled entry, let’s use #1 Fireinthestorm (8-5)  & #1A Spry Charlie (6-5) defensively. If they win, we’ll be left with peanuts, but peanuts enough to cover our bets. #4 Etbauer's Secret (10-1) seems overmatched but Dominguez stays on board. The turf debut was decent even though he went 4 wide, so a better trip could make a huge difference.