Fair Grounds: A single for the $6,919 Pick 6 carryover

It’s been days since anyone managed to hit the Pick 6 at Fair Grounds.

The $1 wager went unsolved on Thursday, when no ticket landed more than three of the six winners. Bettors did a little better on Friday, hitting five out of six, but a winning ticket proved elusive. That was the case again on Saturday, when four out of six was the best anyone could manage.

As a result, there’s a triple carryover worth $6,919 up for grabs in Sunday’s Pick 6 at Fair Grounds, which gets started in Race 4 at 3:15 p.m. ET. Sunday’s sequence contains 66 horses (averaging 11 per race) and 1,672,704 possible outcomes before scratches, so there’s a decent chance the Pick 6 will go unsolved again.

But by the same token, anyone who does pick all six winners will have a fair chance to sweep the whole pool. If you’re going to give it a go, we recommend focusing on #6 Nelson Avenue (3-1) in Race 7 as a single to build tickets around.

Race 8 is a $50,000 allowance optional claimer taking place over 1 1/16 miles on dirt. With eight horses in the entries, it features the smallest field in the Pick 6 sequence and is mathematically the best spot to seek a single.

Nelson Avenue boasts excellent credentials. The Godolphin homebred won a $17,500 allowance optional claimer over this track and distance almost exactly one year ago, tracking the pace from second place before taking over to beat a pair of next-out winners with a 90 Brisnet Speed rating. The runner-up, Britain’s Kitten, actually came back to win the Woodchopper S. at Fair Grounds in his next start.

Nelson Avenue subsequently improved to a 96 Brisnet Speed rating when finishing second in a $50,000 allowance optional claimer racing 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds on Jan. 14. He was beaten only by the stakes-placed Big Blue Line while finishing ahead of Treasury, who returned to win his next start against similar competition.

Unfortunately for Nelson Avenue, he missed the spring and summer and didn’t get back to the races until Oct. 25, when he cut back to seven furlongs for an $80,000 allowance optional claimer at Keeneland. The shorter distance and tougher competition probably weren’t ideal for Nelson Avenue, but he closed ground from midfield to finish fourth, beaten only 2 1/4 lengths while earning a decent 93 Brisnet Speed rating.

Now Nelson Avenue is stretching back out to 1 1/16 miles while returning to Fair Grounds and the $50,000 allowance optional claiming level. None of his rivals have recently earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 94, so Nelson Avenue should be tough to beat if he improves at all in his second start off the layoff. We’re confident he’ll sit a perfect pace-tracking trip and deliver victory.

Good luck!