Fair Grounds: Analyzing the $6,164 Pick 6 carryover

Bettors who wish to win a share of Sunday’s $6,164 Pick 6 carryover at Fair Grounds will have to decipher a challenging sequence.

The $1 wager spans Race 3 through Race 8, a sequence encompassing three turf races. But Fair Grounds was off the turf on Saturday, and there’s a strong chance Sunday’s grass races will be shifted to dirt as well. A bevy of scratches are likely to follow.

Assuming the grass events are transferred to dirt, we’ll have to wait and see which turf horses stay in and which scratch before we can plot out Pick 6 tickets. But we can highlight #15 Uphold the Law (7-2) as a horse worth backing in Race 7, a $50,000 allowance optional claimer that will take place over 5 1/2 furlongs whether it’s held on turf or dirt.

Uphold the Law is a main-track-only entrant, and it’s easy to see why. The five-year-old gelding has run exclusively on dirt, winning four of his six starts. He was particularly sharp in a $50,000 allowance optional claimer sprinting six furlongs at Fair Grounds last January, tracking and pressing the pace before taking over to prevail by one length.

Uphold the Law’s four wins have yielded sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 92, 94, 95, and 95. He completely misfired when stepping up in class for the Feb. 11 Pelican S. at Tampa Bay Downs, finishing ninth after failing to secure his customary position near the lead, but that race unfolded at a blazing pace and Uphold the Law subsequently went to the sidelines.

The good news is Uphold the Law returned to serious training in September and has been cranking out sharp workouts for trainer Brendan Walsh, a 23% winner with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more. Uphold the Law figures to bring his A-game to Fair Grounds and quite possibly vie for victory.

In contrast, Race 5 is a maiden special weight that will take place over 1 1/16 miles on either turf or dirt, and tried-and-true turf campaigner #6 Heckled (3-1) is worth supporting even if there’s a surface switch. Sure, the three-year-old filly has hit the board in seven of her eight turf starts, all against maiden special weight competition. But as a daughter of Hard Spun out of a mare by Street Cry, she has the pedigree to handle dirt just fine.

Heckled is adding blinkers and picking up hot jockey Ben Curtis (a 21% winner to start the Fair Grounds meet), so don’t be surprised if she secures a forward position in this largely paceless field and takes home top honors in her dirt debut.

Good luck!