Fair Grounds: Horses to single in the $14,919 Pick 5 carryover

Sunday’s 50-cent Late Pick 5 at Fair Grounds features a modest 15% takeout rate and a $14,919 carryover. Needless to say, it’s a sequence worth playing.

The Late Pick 5 gets underway in Race 4 at 3:45 p.m. (ET). Need help planning your tickets? We’re here to help with a pair of suggested singles:

Race 4: $40,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile): #6 Lily’s Creed (5-2)

Trainer Tom Amoss has been on fire at Fair Grounds this meet, going 5-for-11 (45%) so far. Jockey Edgar Morales has been similarly hot, going 4-for-13 (31%). Together, they’ve teamed up to win at a 27% rate over the last two months.

All of these stats bode well for #6 Lily’s Creed (5-2), an Amoss trainee slated to be ridden by Morales. Lily’s Creed has shown promise on the Kentucky circuit, and in her first start since being claimed by Amoss she ran second in a $50,000 maiden claimer sprinting six furlongs at Churchill Downs.

Stretching out over one mile is a new challenge for Lily’s Creed, but dropping down to the $40,000 maiden claiming level should help her chances. She owns the highest Brisnet Speed ratings in Sunday’s field, and Amoss strikes at a 28% rate with horses running back for the second time following a claim, so Lily’s Creed looks like a viable single in this six-horse field.

Race 6: $30,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs): #6 Victory March (5-2)

After cracking the trifecta in three of his first five starts against maiden special weight competition, Victory March figures to appreciate dropping down to the $30,000 maiden claiming level at Fair Grounds. Whereas none of his rivals have earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 81, Victory March boasts ratings of 82, 85, 86, 84, and 79.

Victory March misfired in his latest run, finishing seventh in a 7 1/2-furlong event at Churchill Downs, but he pressed and chased a fast pace over a sloppy track and can be forgiven for fading. Victory March figures to receive a more favorable trip in this largely paceless seven-horse field. Throw in the fact trainer Bret Calhoun wins at a 27% rate with horses dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company, and Victory March looks ready to roll as a single.

Good luck!