Fair odds for 150th Kentucky Derby (Feb. 9 edition)

Fierceness, 6-1

Last year's juvenile champion would have remained favored here if not for a shaky comeback in last week's Holy Bull (G3). Like a box of chocolates, we're never quite sure what version of Fierceness we're going to get.

Track Phantom, 8-1

Earned back-to-back prep wins in the Gun Runner S. and Lecomte (G3), and is sure to be underrated again in the Risen Star.

Mystik Dan, 10-1

Dynamite winner of the Southwest (G3) last week, albeit over a muddy track. He'll need to show he can produce the same kind of effort over fast going.

Hades, 20-1

Upset Fierceness in the Holy Bull to improve his record to 3-for-3. The race itself wasn't terribly fast from a figure perspective, so further improvement needed.

Uncle Heavy, 30-1

Made hard work of wearing down El Grande O in the Withers (G3), a race that doesn't generally yield top flight Derby contenders.

Locked, 5-1

Well-beaten third by stablemate Fierceness in the Breeders' Cup, but the Breeders' Futurity (G1) winner kind of assumes the role of modest favorite simply by not having been exposed this year. Rerouted elsewhere from the Sam F. Davis after coming down with a temperature last week.

Liberal Arts, 30-1

Decent third in the Southwest returning from a long layoff. Must show more, and is another whose wet-track form predominates.

Timberlake, 15-1

Champagne (G1) winner didn't get a sniff in the Breeders' Cup, but he's eligible to improve this term. Another whose form has been mildly inconsistent.

Just Steel, 30-1

Grabbed place money in a pair of Oaklawn preps, though there's a case to be made he'd be more effective around one turn.

El Grande O, 50-1

Couldn't quite last the nine furlongs of the Withers despite favorable off-track circumstances, and would be surprised if a longer distance suits.

Nash, 30-1

Beaten twice now when favored over Track Phantom at Fair Grounds. Don't see him reversing that collateral form soon.

West Saratoga, 50-1

Well beaten in two starts following his upset score in the series-opening Iroquois. Will attempt to right the ship in Sam F. Davis.

Honor Marie, 8-1

Successful in a pair of starts at Churchill last fall, including the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). Might need return in Risen Star, but not easily dismissed.

Otto the Conqueror, 50-1

Springboard Mile win was slow, and he backed out readily after setting the pace in the Southwest. Going the wrong direction.

Dornoch, 6-1

Game winner of the Remsen (G2), he's a full brother to last year's Derby winner Mage. Never worse than second in four starts so far.

Catching Freedom, 15-1

Solid victory in the Smarty Jones S. on New Year's Day, though that race is the least important of Oaklawn's four preps.

Domestic Product, 20-1

Solid rebound in the Holy Bull following a modest try in the Remsen. Another step forward or two needed, but on his way.

Moonlight, 50-1

Distant fourth in the Remsen, which is turning into a productive prep. Still, others from that race have an advantage.

Informed Patriot, 50-1

Placed in the Street Sense (G3) and Smarty Jones, but also filled the same slot against allowance foes in between those races.

Lightline, 30-1

Beaten favorite in the Withers perhaps not helped by the off going, but others from the Cox barn have stronger claims.