2024 in review: Travers Stakes left the biggest what-if

Every year is filled with what-if questions, luring us to ponder how different constellations of circumstances might have changed the potential outcomes in alternate universes.

In the world of horse racing, this often takes the form of wondering what might have happened if a certain horse had run in a particular race. 

Among the projected match-ups that never happened in 2024 were two that would have had a significant bearing on the Eclipse Awards. Idiomatic, the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) champion, was retired with an injury before she could try to defend her title against younger superstar Thorpedo Anna. Another top older dirt female, Adare Manor, arguably would have beaten males in the Pacific Classic (G1), if she hadn’t been sidelined and ultimately retired. 

In the absence of Idiomatic and Adare Manor, Thorpedo Anna enjoyed a cruise around Del Mar in what became effectively a victory lap in the Distaff. 

Yet for me, the most vexing counterfactuals tend to involve the dynamics of a race itself, where things didn’t necessarily have to develop the way they did. Re-imagine the scenario, and you might well re-imagine the result.

What contributed to Thorpedo Anna’s loss in the Travers?

Thorpedo Anna was embroiled in just such a scenario in her only loss of the year, the one time she took on males, in the Travers (G1). Although Fierceness held her off by a head, he had his optimal set-up, while Thorpedo Anna did not. 

I’d argue that the key factor was their post positions. The two bookended the field, with Thorpedo Anna on the rail and Fierceness in the outside post 8. Although the colt covered extra ground, an outside tracking trip is the very definition of his comfort zone. Fierceness had the luxury of making his move at will, under a perfectly-judged ride by Hall of Famer John Velazquez.

In contrast, Thorpedo Anna had to extricate herself from traffic, and by the time she had clear sailing, Fierceness had gotten a decisive jump. If she were a closer, you’d say that’s just the risk that goes along with the running style.

But in the typical course of events, Thorpedo Anna would have been winding up to deliver the coup de grace herself at precisely the point that Fierceness moved. Only this time, she was stuck and forced to wait for room. That wasn’t the fault of regular rider Brian Hernandez Jr. (who should have been an Eclipse finalist for outstanding jockey), but the hand he had to play once others were overly aggressive in the early going.

When the 29-1 Batten Down was intent on scampering forward, chased by Belmont (G1) and Haskell (G1) winner Dornoch, Hernandez opted to let them go rather burn excess energy dueling on the rail. Thorpedo Anna thereby settled into a stalking third. 

The trade-off was that she got pocketed, first when Dornoch himself eased back a bit. As Dornoch crept forward again down the backstretch when the pace slackened, Velazquez cleverly moved up to position Fierceness on her flank. 

Even so, Thorpedo Anna wasn’t in dire straits until leaving the far turn, when Dornoch wound up stalling alongside Batten Down. Had Dornoch gone on as could have been reasonably expected, she could have followed him through into the lane.

Instead, Thorpedo Anna was on hold behind them, and Fierceness was circling them to poach the advantage. In the process, she found herself losing lengths at the exact point where she is normally advancing. 

Thorpedo Anna was taken a bit out of her game, forced to make up more ground in the stretch, on last year’s champion two-year-old male. She deserves great credit for erasing nearly all of her two-length deficit in the final furlong, and missing by a head in her bid to become the first filly to win the Travers in 109 years. 

What if the post positions were reversed?

It would be too reductionist to claim that the post positions determined the outcome. Fierceness had the better draw, but he still had to capitalize on it. He therefore deserves credit for delivering a monstrous effort on the day, responding on cue to Velazquez, and pulling out extra to stave off Thorpedo Anna. 

But imagine that the post positions were reversed. If Fierceness lands in post 1, what are the chances that he works out a winning trip? Isn’t it likelier that he suffers a claustrophobic experience? Or at least has to overcome a similar tactical conundrum?

Now imagine the totally different voyage that Thorpedo Anna would have navigated from post 8. She arguably would have gotten the “Fierceness trip,” perched in the ideal outside tracking spot and moving sweetly to the fore turning for home. 

In an alternate universe where Thorpedo Anna and Fierceness both had a chance to do their best, what would have been the result? Does she still lose by a head, if she gets to deploy her momentum sooner? If it’s an alternate universe where Fierceness was compromised by a sub-optimal trip, the case is stronger for the filly to come out on top.

That’s why the Travers is my most tantalizing what-if of 2024. If Thorpedo Anna had her typical passage through the race, and won, she would have been an even heavier favorite for Horse of the Year. 

The more speculative-minded might also observe that her trainer Kenny McPeek won the 2024 Kentucky Derby (G1) with his second-best sophomore, Mystik Dan. That opens up a whole different series of what-ifs involving Thorpedo Anna and a Triple Crown trail not taken.

Postscript on Horse of the Year

Contra my colleague Vance Hanson, I did cast my ballot for Thorpedo Anna as Horse of the Year. Vance and I are usually on the same page when it comes to historical criteria, and it’s true that she didn’t have a year on the order of Rachel Alexandra (2009), never mind the World War II-era giantesses that he cited as past three-year-old fillies to reign as Horse of the Year.

Those parameters are helpful to screen out candidates who were simply beating up on a weak division, and accordingly bring inflated resumes to the table. At the same time, historical criteria don’t exist in a vacuum, but must be applied within the overall landscape of a given year. 

For me, Thorpedo Anna’s near-miss performance in the Travers lifted her to the level of a proper Horse of the Year. In a season when other divisions lacked clarity, she dominated her own while proving that she could transcend it in one of the nation’s most historic prizes for sophomores. 

The 2024 Travers was especially deep, since third-placer Sierra Leone and Fierceness came back to run one-two in a Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) dominated by the three-year-old set. If the colts had established a definitive pecking order, it would have been easier for me to stick to a traditional formula for my Horse of the Year vote. Yet Sierra Leone has a boatload of counterfactuals lurking within, and Fierceness’s losses were a bit too steep of an obstacle.

Thorpedo Anna more than held her own against the other two leading contenders for the crown, without blotting her record as they did at times, and that carried the most weight with me.