Monday Morning Message with Jason Beem for April 28, 2025

Jason discusses the week ahead as we build up to the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby. 

A good Monday morning to you all! Derby week is finally here, and as soon as the races were drawn, it felt like the excitement and electricity shifted for me from knowing it was coming up, to true anticipation. Now of course there’s a lot of fun stuff coming this week including good cards at Churchill Downs all week long leading up to Saturday’s huge Derby card. Stay present, take things as they come, but enjoy what is one of the most fun weeks to be a participant in this game. 

I’ll give my final Kentucky Derby (G1) and Oaks (G1) thoughts in my Thursday column coming up this week. I wanted to share a couple of thoughts about the draw for both races. 

It’s funny with the Oaks because I always find myself thinking the draw is so much less important than the Derby simply because there are fewer horses. But the key component to the draw and that race has to be the much quicker run to the first turn. At Churchill Downs, the turn starts very soon after the wire. That’s part of why the homestretch is so long from the top to the wire, because after the wire it’s into the turn very quickly. So a horse like Quietside who likes to be forwardly placed very well might have to work to find and establish a good position early on. 

The other interesting part of the Oaks draw was so much of the speed being right together in posts 7, 8, and 9. La Cara has won her last two starts where she made the lead alone, but was beaten at Gulfstream when she didn’t. Will she be sending and trying to clear? I’d think so, but there are some other fast horses right outside of her. 

My buddy from Tampa Bay Downs, Owen Almighty, certainly didn’t get any favors drawing out in post 20 in the Derby. He certainly looks up against it in this race, and the fact that he’ll have to cross and clear several lanes of traffic just to work over during the stretch, that is its own little form of ground loss. I would think Citizen Bull will have to break right on cue and establish his spot with Neoequos early on as they’ve drawn the two inside posts, and both want the lead. I saw a lot of people on Twitter the other night saying how there’s so much pace on paper, maybe everyone will take back and someone will walk the dog up front. I just can’t imagine that being the case in a race like the Kentucky Derby. 

Like a lot of people, I’ll probably change my mind on the Derby and Oaks at least a few times during the week. And while I’ll post my public “picks” on Thursday in my column, it really is important to remember that you don’t have to make any decisions on the Derby, the Oaks, or any race, until they’re about to run. Wait and see the odds, see how your horse is getting bet, and make your decisions based off that information. No sense in locking into a horse you think is going to be 15-1 when they turn out to be the “wise guy” horse and get bet down to 8-1. This is one of the few races during the year when you’re going to be able to find super-live horses that are 20-1! I can’t imagine taking the favorite just out of principle in a race like this. But if you love Journalism, by all means go.  

Truly hope that everyone enjoys this week and that we have a memorable Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby. It really is a time for us to celebrate this great game that brings us together all year long.