Monday Morning Message with Jason Beem for April 7, 2025

Jason looks back at the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and discusses jockey Kendrick Carmouche winning his 4,000th career race on Saturday. 

A good Monday morning to you all! Kind of a strange weekend with Keeneland and Oaklawn washing out and even stranger will be the Blue Grass S. (G1) run on a Tuesday. Hopefully the weather will dry out a little bit for the big Tuesday card in Lexington. I’m very much looking forward to watching such a big card on such a normally quiet day. 

Journalism got his win in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), and despite some tense moments, won like a good thing once again. It feels like he’s most likely going to the gate as the favorite in this year’s Kentucky Derby (G1) unless something really extreme happens at Keeneland on Tuesday. 

I’ve seen a few people mention that they think the top-end horses on both the Kentucky Oaks (G1) and Derby trails seem to be a significant ways ahead of their rivals, and I’m just not seeing it. Journalism is awesome, but outside of his maiden-breaking win, he’s been facing four rivals in four of his five career starts, all of them in Southern California. I think it’s important to respect what he’s done and that he did have to overcome some trouble on Saturday, but to take a short price on him in the Kentucky Derby seems crazy to me. Honestly, taking a favorite in the Derby always seems kind of crazy to me just because there’s so much possibility for either chaos or just someone to jump forward. 

In recent history, of course, there have been some big upsets and some favored winners as well, but horses like Mystik Dan at 18-1, Mage at 15-1, and either Medina Spirit or Mandaloun at their big prices –they just all seem like horses with decent chances at very large prices compared to a horse with certainly a good chance, but at 7-2 or 4-1. I don’t think Journalism is going to be a huge favorite this year, like under 3-1, but I suppose we shall see, and of course, it does depend on who gets to the starting gate. 

I think my favorite moment of the weekend was seeing Kendrick Carmouche score his 4,000th career victory on Saturday at Aqueduct. Kendrick has been riding since 2000 and in that time has managed to average about 1,000 mounts a year. He’s racked up just shy of $160 million in purse earnings and has won a slew of graded stakes in the process. I think one of the most shocking things I learned about him when looking at his stats this weekend is that he’s only won ONE Grade 1 race ever. That was the Cigar Mile in 2020 about True Timber. I’ve been watching him win big races in New York and elsewhere. I figured he’d had to have won at least five races or more at the highest level.  

Regardless of where someone wins 4,000 races, it’s a huge achievement. Winning 200 races in a calendar year is not easy, and to do it for over two decades is remarkably tough. I think sometimes we get fixated on the horsemen and women who compete at the highest levels, but winning races isn’t easy anywhere. Kendrick has managed to win 4,001 of them and for much of the last decade he’s been competing on arguably the toughest circuit in the country. So big congrats to him. 

I’ve had the good fortune of interviewing him on my podcast, and I loved his story. His personality shines through so much, it’s no wonder he’s a favorite of many racing fans.  

So happy Ashland Stakes Day and enjoy this long string of racedays at Keeneland!