Monday Morning Message with Jason Beem for Feb. 10, 2025

A good Monday morning to you all! Hope everyone enjoyed last night’s big football game. I’m writing this column as it’s being played and so far my “prediction” at the top of my show isn’t looking too good. As you’re reading this, though, the game is over, so I hope you hit any bets you might have made! 

Saturday was our annual Sam F. Davis Stakes Day here at Tampa, and we were blessed with incredible weather for the big card. I often mention that big days aren’t my favorite because there’s usually just a lot of extra noise and often extra stuff going on that distracts from just calling the races, but as far as big days go, this one went very smoothly. The racing was good, we had some upsets, some nice performances, and certainly lots to talk about. 

The big race didn’t disappoint as it turned into a two-horse affair for basically the entire 1 1/16-mile duration. John Hancock was bet to slight favoritism over Owen Almighty on the strength of just a single local start. The debut was impressive, but I think most people were backing John Hancock because of his connections of Brad Cox and Flavien Prat. Because this was a big ask to go long and two turns against stakes winners in just your second career start. 

They both broke very well, but Irad Ortiz Jr. on Owen Almighty seemed content to let John Hancock have the lead as they went onto the backstretch. But down the straightaway, Irad moved up Owen Almighty to join John Hancock as they went into the turn. They stayed a head apart for most of the race after that, with Owen Almighty going narrowly to the front briefly around the eighth pole. 

A lot of horseplayers will reference the Cox “re-break” where his runners will have the lead, get passed momentarily, and then come back. We see it a fair bit, and John Hancock was no exception as the moment he fell a head behind, he battled right back and actually was edging away a bit at the end to win by a half-length margin. 

I think some of that was Owen Almighty slowing up just a touch as he was in chase-and-press mode for quite a while in what was also his first time going around two turns. His trainer Brian Lynch commented the day after that they might indeed look to cut back a little in distance going forward and possibly point towards the Pat Day Mile (G2), always one of the most fun races on the Kentucky Derby (G1) undercard. 

The Suncoast S. was a big performance by La Cara who certainly held a big class edge going into Saturday’s Kentucky Oaks (G1) points race. She’s already a Grade 3 winner, and while the entire picture changed the second Her Laugh didn’t break well, La Cara got what I thought was a very heady ride by Dylan Davis to send to the front. He got her into an easy beat and she truly never looked in danger as she poured it on down the lane. It’s highly doubtful she’ll get that cozy setup again going forward, but her Pocahontas (G3) win showed that she could come from off of the pace, so maybe she won’t need it? 

The other performance from the day that stood out for me was Nic’s Style scoring in the Minaret S. She’s now 6-for-7, and her only defeat was a runner-up effort in the Gallant Bloom (G2) last fall. 

I was very intrigued to see if Dazzling Blue could make the lead in the Minaret because she was 3-for-3 to start her career going gate-to-wire. Since then she hasn’t made the early lead and also hasn’t won. She got clear and looked like she might be gone in the Minaret, but Nic’s Style surged in the final jump to get up and score. It’s amazing some of those horses just know how to get to the wire first. She did not have nearly as good of a trip as Dazzling Blue had, and still ran her down. Awesome effort. 

It was a fun day and looking forward to Tampa Bay Derby Day in a few more weeks!