Monday Morning Message with Jason Beem for March 31, 2025

Jason discusses some of the also-rans from the Kentucky Derby (G1) preps this weekend and talks some Florida Cup Day from the Sunshine State. 

A good Monday morning to you all! Another big weekend in the books and not much room to come up for air, as we immediately jump into Keeneland opening up and the super Saturday of Kentucky Derby (G1) preps ahead with the Wood Memorial (G2), Blue Grass (G1), and Santa Anita Derby (G1) on tap. 

Note: Keeneland's Friday card has been pushed to Monday, and Saturday's racing will take place on Tuesday due to severe weather forecast for this upcoming weekend. 

Obviously lots of eyes will be on all the races, but with Journalism set to go in the Santa Anita Derby, it’s likely that how he runs will determine who goes off as favorite or not in five weeks at Churchill Downs. A solid win, and he’s certainly remaining in the favorite’s role. Maybe even a close loss and he does, but what if he throws in a stinker? Very curious as to who would go off favored if that is the case. 

This weekend’s preps both featured horses who ran on from off of the pace with Tappan Street and Sovereignty running one-two in the Florida Derby (G1) and Sandman finally breaking through to win the Arkansas Derby (G1) over Publisher and Coal Battle in third. 

Of those five horses, I’d have to believe Publisher will be the longest price come the first Saturday in May. Being a maiden is part of why, but also Coal Battle has gotten, and will get, a lot of publicity because of the smaller-name connections and his story to Louisville. 

I think in a race like the Derby more than others, sometimes the story and tugging at the heartstrings can have significant effect on the wagering. Just look at West Saratoga last year who went off at just 22-1 odds because of his story with trainer Larry Demeritte. He was a lower price than the Wood winner, Tampa Bay Derby (G3) winner, Santa Anita Derby winner, and many others. In fact, he went off at less than half the price of the horse who beat him in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), as Endlessly was 48-1!              

I think a lot of people are going to be on board the Sovereignty train as he has shown he can be a solid late closer. I just worry in that race coming from so far behind is tough unless you get a flawless trip through. Sure, you have your Mine That Bird and Rich Strikes, but it’s not easy to rally from that far back in that race with 19 combatants in your way. With Tappan Street my worry would be that he’s going to be one of the horses who is used to sitting third or fourth early on and stalking, but in the Derby might be sitting back 10th or 11th early, which is a much different trip. 

Obviously there’s a lot more prepping to go before we have to get too concerned with making picks and having final Derby thoughts. I’ve always thought being married to a horse or a top 10 list was silly unless you’re just in the content business (like me) and are trying to make some noise and create some conversation. In the Kentucky Derby, like all horse races, the betting windows are open until the gate pops. Which means you have until then to make your decision for how you want to approach the race. 

Last thing real quick: here in Tampa on Sunday we had our annual Florida Cup Day. With all the talk about decoupling and Gulfstream, there are certainly some feelings of instability here in the Sunshine State about racing as well as breeding. So it was a lot of fun to see some good full fields of state-breds competing for good purses, but also to see so many of the great breeders and owners here in Florida show up for the day. Just put a smile on my face. 

Everyone have a good week!