Finding vulnerable favorites in the 2024 Breeders' Cup

As I've noted several times in other posts, last year's Breeders' Cup Saturday was a tough day to try and beat the chalk. However, I did improve slightly over previous years by correctly fading two of the three horses mentioned in this column. (Note: Arabian Knight wound up going off as the second choice in the Classic [G1] and losing to post-time favorite White Abarrio).

It's that time again to pick out a few horses to fade for next weekend's festivities at Del Mar, a decision made slightly more difficult following recent defections like National Treasure, who most certainly would have been included on this list.

RELATED: Breeders' Cup News and Notes

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1)/Juvenile (G1)

This two-fer will go on expected favorites Immersive and East Avenue, both of whom are campaigned by Godolphin. Besides the not-great track record of Alcibiades (G1) and Breeders' Futurity (G1) winners in the Breeders' Cups held in California (Del Mar especially), there are a couple other factors.

Although this doesn't appear a stellar renewal of the Juvenile Fillies on paper, Immersive, despite being a dual Grade 1 winner, hasn't run all that much faster than rivals like Non Compliant and Scottish Lassie. From an odds and betting perspective, there simply doesn't appear as if there will be a large margin for error on her part at that price available.

As far as East Avenue goes, his facile performances to date are definitely compelling. However, he encountered no serious pace pressure in either start in Kentucky, something he might not be able to avoid here. Perhaps he'll be good enough to overcome it or luck out again in not getting any, but it will be difficult to take the shortest price in a quality group with several other promising types.

Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1)

The three-year-old Ways and Means is all the rage following back-to-back wins in the Test (G1) and Gallant Bloom (G2), but both races occurred on off tracks and lacked depth. The older Filly & Mare Sprint division was fairly strong all season, and Breeders' Cup rivals Society and Vahva were among the best. Society, in particular, showed a new dimension by winning the Ballerina (G1) from slightly off the pace and enters the Breeders' Cup very fresh with just two previous starts this season.

Another concern for Ways and Means is that three-year-olds don't have a great record of winning this race. Only three have done so since 2007, and two of them, Covfefe and Gamine, looked a bit stronger on paper than Ways and Means does here.