Forte hardens into 3-1 favoritism in KDFW Pool 5; Wet Paint popular in Oaks Future
Forte is the clear Kentucky Derby favorite (Photo by Coglianese Photos/Lauren King)
March 13th, 2023
Champion Forte closed as the overall 3-1 favorite in Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager on Sunday evening, his strongest backing so far in the KDFW series. The only other interest to finish in single digits was Tapit Trice (8-1), his Todd Pletcher stablemate who won Saturday’s Tampa Bay Derby (G3) amid the wagering.
In the three most recent pools, Forte was the top individual choice, but the mutuel field of “All others” had been the consistent overall favorite until now. What moved the proverbial needle was his triumphant return in the March 4 Fountain of Youth (G2), his first start since capturing the Nov. 4 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1).
Pool 1, which ran prior to the Breeders’ Cup, was the only time Forte was not the individual market leader. He was a 16-1 chance at that stage, second to the subsequently sidelined Extra Anejo (12-1), while “All others” was all the rage at 4-5. Forte thereafter took over the role as preferred individual, trading at 10-1 (Pool 2), 7-1 (Pool 3), and 8-1 (Pool 4) through his winter holiday.
By confirming his status as the head of the class in his Gulfstream Park comeback, Forte was pegged at 4-1 on the Pool 5 morning line. His price had already shortened by Saturday, but late-breaking news of the defection of his nearest market rival, Arabian Knight, only furthered the momentum.
Tapit Trice, a 15-1 shot on the morning line, was likewise a market mover even in anticipation of the Tampa Bay Derby. With his last-gasp rally to prevail, he wasn’t as flashy or dominating as might have been expected. Tapit Trice’s Pool 5 plunge was pretty much done by then, and he ended at 8-1.
“All others” drifted noticeably, doubling from a morning line of 5-1 to 10-1. Next came Practical Move at 12-1, following his buzzworthy victory in the March 4 San Felipe (G2), and the 19-1 Instant Coffee, who has been freshened since his score in the Jan. 21 Lecomte (G3). Both had picked up where they left off as juveniles, with Instant Coffee taking the Nov. 26 Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) and Practical Move the Dec. 17 Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). But Practical Move had hitherto been an outcast in the market, most recently closing at 83-1 in Pool 4.
The sixth and final KDFW pool comes up in fewer than three weeks, opening on Thursday, March 30, and closing on Saturday, April 1 - before the Derby points races that day.
Details, including will-pays and exacta probables, are available on the Future Wager section on KentuckyDerby.com.
2023 Kentucky Derby Future Wager - Pool 5 (March 10-12)
| Horse | Final Odds | Morning-line Odds |
|---|
#1 Angel of Empire | 38-1 | 30-1 |
#2 Arabian Knight | SCR | 10-1 |
#3 Arabian Lion | 179-1 | 50-1 |
#4 Blazing Sevens | 66-1 | 40-1 |
#5 Cagliostro | 189-1 | 99-1 |
#6 Cairo | 75-1 | 50-1 |
#7 Classic Car Wash | 85-1 | 99-1 |
#8 Classic Catch | 179-1 | 50-1 |
#9 Confidence Game | 30-1 | 30-1 |
#10 Congruent | 94-1 | 80-1 |
#11 Cyclone Mischief | 89-1 | 40-1 |
#12 Denington | 241-1 | 80-1 |
#13 Disarm | 60-1 | 99-1 |
#14 Forte | 3-1 | 4-1 |
#15 Geaux Rocket Ride | 30-1 | 20-1 |
#16 General Jim | 65-1 | 80-1 |
#17 Hejazi | 53-1 | 40-1 |
#18 Hit Show | 28-1 | 30-1 |
#19 Instant Coffee | 19-1 | 20-1 |
#20 Kingsbarns | 43-1 | 50-1 |
#21 Litigate | 66-1 | 50-1 |
#22 Mage | 75-1 | 80-1 |
#23 Major Dude | 141-1 | 50-1 |
#24 Mandarin Hero | 116-1 | 50-1 |
#25 National Treasure | 53-1 | 30-1 |
#26 Perriere | 59-1 | 50-1 |
#27 Practical Move | 12-1 | 8-1 |
#28 Raise Cain | 66-1 | 50-1 |
#29 Red Route One | 24-1 | 40-1 |
#30 Reincarnate | 24-1 | 30-1 |
#31 Rocket Can | 42-1 | 40-1 |
#32 Skinner | 45-1 | 40-1 |
#33 Sun Thunder | 85-1 | 99-1 |
#34 Tapit Trice | 8-1 | 15-1 |
#35 Tapit's Conquest | 90-1 | 35-1 |
#36 Two Eagles River | 270-1 | 80-1 |
#37 Two Phil's | 88-1 | 80-1 |
#38 Verifying | 36-1 | 50-1 |
#39 Victory Formation | 82-1 | 80-1 |
#40 All Other 3yos | 10-1 | 5-1 |
In the one and only Kentucky Oaks Future Wager (KOFW) that ran concurrently from March 10-12, bettors lumped onto the streaking Wet Paint. The Brad Cox filly, who opened at 12-1, tumbled into 4-1 favoritism after rallying victories in the Martha Washington S. and Honeybee (G3) at Oaklawn Park.
Last year’s champion two-year-old filly Wonder Wheel, the 8-1 morning-line favorite, gained steam nearing the 6:30 pm. (ET) closing time and finished at 6-1. She was surprisingly overturned in her comeback in the Feb. 11 Suncoast S., so her fans hope for a leap forward.
Hoosier Philly, formerly under Kentucky Derby consideration when an 11-1 chance in Pool 4, was a disappointing third to Pretty Mischievous in the Feb. 25 Rachel Alexandra (G2). But the highly-regarded filly was still preferred to Pretty Mischievous in the KOFW, backed into 7-1 from a 15-1 morning line. Pretty Mischievous floated from 10-1 to 15-1, just behind the mutuel field of “All other three-year-old fillies” that finished at 14-1.
Cox’s unbeaten Punchbowl was bet down from 20-1 to 11-1 ahead of her stakes debut, while Julia Shining settled at 14-1. Guns n’ Graces saw her odds halved, from 40-1 to 20-1, in the wake of her closing second in the Davona Dale (G2).
For more on the KOFW, see the Oaks pool page at KentuckyDerby.com.
2023 Kentucky Derby Future Wager - Pool 5 (March 10-12)
| Horse | Final Odds | Morning-line Odds |
|---|
#1 Angel of Empire | 38-1 | 30-1 |
#2 Arabian Knight | SCR | 10-1 |
#3 Arabian Lion | 179-1 | 50-1 |
#4 Blazing Sevens | 66-1 | 40-1 |
#5 Cagliostro | 189-1 | 99-1 |
#6 Cairo | 75-1 | 50-1 |
#7 Classic Car Wash | 85-1 | 99-1 |
#8 Classic Catch | 179-1 | 50-1 |
#9 Confidence Game | 30-1 | 30-1 |
#10 Congruent | 94-1 | 80-1 |
#11 Cyclone Mischief | 89-1 | 40-1 |
#12 Denington | 241-1 | 80-1 |
#13 Disarm | 60-1 | 99-1 |
#14 Forte | 3-1 | 4-1 |
#15 Geaux Rocket Ride | 30-1 | 20-1 |
#16 General Jim | 65-1 | 80-1 |
#17 Hejazi | 53-1 | 40-1 |
#18 Hit Show | 28-1 | 30-1 |
#19 Instant Coffee | 19-1 | 20-1 |
#20 Kingsbarns | 43-1 | 50-1 |
#21 Litigate | 66-1 | 50-1 |
#22 Mage | 75-1 | 80-1 |
#23 Major Dude | 141-1 | 50-1 |
#24 Mandarin Hero | 116-1 | 50-1 |
#25 National Treasure | 53-1 | 30-1 |
#26 Perriere | 59-1 | 50-1 |
#27 Practical Move | 12-1 | 8-1 |
#28 Raise Cain | 66-1 | 50-1 |
#29 Red Route One | 24-1 | 40-1 |
#30 Reincarnate | 24-1 | 30-1 |
#31 Rocket Can | 42-1 | 40-1 |
#32 Skinner | 45-1 | 40-1 |
#33 Sun Thunder | 85-1 | 99-1 |
#34 Tapit Trice | 8-1 | 15-1 |
#35 Tapit's Conquest | 90-1 | 35-1 |
#36 Two Eagles River | 270-1 | 80-1 |
#37 Two Phil's | 88-1 | 80-1 |
#38 Verifying | 36-1 | 50-1 |
#39 Victory Formation | 82-1 | 80-1 |
#40 All Other 3yos | 10-1 | 5-1 |
