Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: 10-1 at Los Alamitos

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Sept. 20 at Churchill Downs and Los Alamitos, along with horses to play in carryovers at Churchill and Presque Isle Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• $3,000 Los Alamitos Leaderboard: Place $10+ win bets at Los Alamitos from Friday through Sunday to earn points and compete for your share of $3,000 in prizes.
• Fraser Downs $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in the final two races at Fraser Downs each day from Sept. 12 through Nov. 29.
• Caesar’s Trotting Classic $5,000 Late Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 4 on Friday at Hoosier Park to win your share of a $5,000 prize pool.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Churchill Downs: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (6 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 2:13 p.m. ET)

#9 Amarth (8-1) is an unraced daughter of juvenile Grade 1 winner McKinzie out of a mare by five-time leading North American sire Into Mischief. This is a pedigree geared toward speed and early maturity.

Amarth is living up to her pedigree in training. On Aug. 13 she clocked a bullet half-mile at Keeneland in :47 2/5. She repeated the move in an even quicker :46 1/5 on Sept. 12.

Amarth looks ready to produce a competitive debut under hot jockey Luis Saez (a 23% winner at Churchill Downs this meet), so let’s bet this two-year-old filly to win.

Selections

• #9 Amarth (8-1)
• #10 Stylet (7-2)
• #2 Truthorconsequence (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #9 Amarth

Churchill Downs: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (6 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 3:50 p.m. ET)

#3 Muhimma (3-1), a $700,000 auction acquisition, has put together a promising work tab for high-percentage trainer Brad Cox. On Sept 7, she clocked five furlongs in 1:00 4/5 at Churchill Downs. Last Saturday, she worked half a mile over the same track in :47 3/5.

Muhimma is slated to be ridden by Florent Geroux, a 28% winner teaming up with Cox over the last two months. Throw in the fact Muhimma is a daughter of speedy sprinter/miler Munnings (who sires 15% winners from first-time starters), and she’s worthy of a win bet.

We’ll also play her over fellow first-time starter #1 Everloving (10-1) in a small exacta.

Selections

• #3 Muhimma (3-1)
• #1 Everloving (10-1)
• #12 California Sunset (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #3 Muhimma
• $5 Exacta: 3 with 1
  Total: $30

Los Alamitos: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on dirt, 4:29 p.m. ET)

#3 Farenheit O C (10-1) suffered a slow start and some early trouble when finishing seventh in his debut sprinting five furlongs over the Del Mar turf course. He dropped 8 1/2 lengths off the early pace and lost only a quarter of a length of additional ground from there to the finish.

That effort came in a non-state-restricted maiden special weight. On Friday, Farenheit O is dropping into the California-bred ranks and switching to dirt. Trainer Dan Blacker wins at a lofty 24% rate with horses switching from turf to dirt, so Farenheit O C is eligible to outrun expectations at double-digit odds.

Selections

• #3 Farenheit O C (10-1)
• #1 Pokerknightatvees (4-1)
• #2 Shanaplan (5-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #3 Farenheit O C

Carryover Watch

Churchill Downs: Race 1: $3,757 Super High 5 carryover (12:45 p.m. ET)

Planning to pursue Friday’s $3,757 carryover in the $1 Super High 5 at Churchill Downs? Then you’ll have to solve Race 1, a $50,000 maiden claimer taking place over 1 1/16 miles on dirt.

There isn’t much pace in the seven-horse field, so #4 Seven Taylors (2-1) looks like the right horse to build tickets around. He faded to fifth place after tracking and pressing the pace in a one-mile maiden special weight at Ellis Park last month, but two starts back he set the pace on his way to finishing third by half a length in a 1 1/16-mile $50,000 maiden claimer at Churchill Downs.

Returning to that configuration on Friday should make Seven Taylors tough to beat if he shakes loose on an uncontested lead. We suggest keying him on top in the Super High 5.

Presque Isle Downs: Race 6: $805 Pick 5 carryover (6:15 p.m. ET)

A rare Friday card at Presque Isle Downs is packed with reasons to play. There are four stakes on the agenda, and the 50-cent Late Pick 5 features a non-jackpot $805 Pick 5 carryover.

The feature event of the afternoon is Race 9, the penultimate leg of the Late Pick 5. It’s the $300,000 Presque Isle Downs Masters (G2), a 6 1/2-furlong Tapeta sprint for fillies and mares. The race serves as a prominent steppingstone to the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) and has been won by Filly & Mare Sprint heroines Informed Decision (2009-10), Musical Romance (2011), and Groupie Doll (2012-13).

Nine horses have entered this year’s Masters. All have won over synthetic tracks in the past. We recommend using two of them in the Pick 5: #2 Roses for Debra (9-5) and #6 Nice as Pie (5-1).

Roses for Debra has enjoyed plenty of success sprinting on turf, winning the 2024 Giant’s Causeway (G3) and 2023 Caress (G3). But she also boasts three wins and a second from four starts over the Presque Isle Tapeta, so returning to this track shouldn’t be an issue. She’s the class of the Masters field as far as past accomplishments are concerned and looms as the mare to beat under five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr.

As for Nice as Pie, she’s suffered defeats in her last two starts on turf, most recently finishing second by a head in the one-mile Penn Oaks on May 31. But the three-year-old filly is 4-for-4 on Tapeta, winning a quartet of sprints (including two stakes) at Turfway Park during the winter and spring. She’s cranked out sharp workouts in advance of her return and looks like a danger from off the pace.

Good luck!