Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: 10-1 longshot at Keeneland

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, April 5 at Keeneland and Oaklawn Park, along with horses to play in the $3,283 Super High 5 carryover at Tampa Bay Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Keeneland Double Down: Hit two double wagers in a single day at Keeneland to receive a 25% bonus (up to 50% per day) on all winning double wagers for the day, every Wednesday through Friday in April.
• 15% Power Hour Profit Boost: Receive a 15% bonus on all winning win, exacta, trifecta, and superfecta wagers placed on any eligible race between 4:00 p.m. and 5:00 p.m. ET.
• Australian Autumn Racing Carnival $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any eligible race at Rosehill Gardens or Royal Randwick in Australia. Today’s track is Royal Randwick.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Keeneland: Race 3: Allowance (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 2:04 p.m. ET)

#5 Judge Davis (6-1) rallied after a slow start to win a 5 1/2-furlong allowance over the Keeneland turf course last October. He’s only run once since then, finishing eighth in a five-furlong $62,500 allowance optional claimer on grass at Gulfstream Park, a race in which he was run off his feet through intense fractions of :21.31 and :43.25.

Judge Davis may find conditions more favorable while returning to Keeneland. Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey has assigned acclaimed grass rider Flavien Prat the mount, so we’re willing to bet Judge Davis can deliver victory at enticing odds.

A win bet is in order, and we’ll also use Judge Davis to start a small double wager.

Selections

• #5 Judge Davis (6-1)
• #3 Mo Stash (2-1)
• #1 Counterstrike (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #5 Judge Davis
• $5 Double: 5 with 6
  Total: $25

Keeneland: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (seven furlongs, 2:36 p.m. ET)

This maiden sprint for three-year-old fillies hasn’t come up especially deep on paper, so we’ll take a shot backing first-time starter #6 Princess Madison (10-1). Sold for $250,000 as a yearling, Princess Madison is a daughter of champion sprinter Speightstown out of a mare by Old Topper, and those two stallions both sire 16% winners from first-time starters.

But wait, it gets better. Princess Madison has turned in several bullet workouts for high-percentage trainer Philip Bauer, who wins at a 24% rate with first-time starters. There are plenty of reasons to believe Princess Madison can deliver a debut victory at double-digit odds, so we’ll bet her to win and single her to conclude our double wager.

Selections

• #6 Princess Madison (10-1)
• #1 Roman Grace (3-1)
• #7 Neat Trick (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Princess Madison

Oaklawn Park: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 5:26 p.m. ET)

First-time starter #10 Andrea Diane (20-1) enters off back-to-back bullet half-mile workouts at Will Rogers Downs, including one timed from the starting gate in :47 4/5. She clearly has speed and is bred to excel from an early age; she’s a daughter of Speightster (who sires a respectable 13% winners from first-time starters) and a half-sister to Hard Love, who won her debut at age two before taking the Woodhaven S. in her third start.

Let’s bet Andrea Diane to win, then play her under logical favorite #8 She Called (7-5) in a small saver exacta.

Selections

• #10 Andrea Diane (20-1)
• #8 She Called (7-5)
• #1 Joelma (12-1)

Wagers

• $16 to win on #10 Andrea Diane
• $4 Exacta: 8 with 10
  Total: $20

Carryover Watch

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 1: $3,283 Super High 5 carryover (12:20 p.m. ET)

A tricky handicapping challenge awaits bettors who want to win a share of Friday’s $3,283 Super High 5 carryover at Tampa Bay Downs.

The prize pool for the $1 wager is available to pursue right off the bat in Race 1, a $16,000 maiden claimer for three-year-olds sprinting seven furlongs on dirt. With eight horses in the entries, there are only 6,720 possible Super High 5 outcomes to analyze. But splitting those eight horses is anything but easy.

Five of the entrants have already competed at the $16,000 maiden claiming level, and none bring especially inspiring form to the table. #8 Mitole’s Wish (5-1) is one of the more interesting ones; he finished fourth in a six-furlong sprint over this track and class level on Feb. 28 and is now adding blinkers for his first start as a gelding. Hot trainer Juan Arriagada wins at a 24% rate with horses racing in blinkers for the first time, and jockey Jose Batista has gone 6-for-12 (50%) teaming up with Arriagada over the last two months, so there are things to like about Mitole’s Wish’s profile.

However, a couple of runners who are descending the class ladder loom as more likely winners. We’ll throw our support behind #2 Idle Union (2-1), who has posted faster Brisnet Speed ratings than Mitole’s Wish while competing against maiden special weight and $40,000 maiden claiming competition. He earned a 68 (higher than Mitole’s Wish’s career-best 66) over this track and distance last month and should appreciate dropping into a $16,000 maiden claimer for trainer Darien Rodriguez, a 29% winner with horses descending multiple levels down the class ladder.

#5 Why Not Me (3-1) is appealing as well. He’s competing exclusively against maiden special weight competition, and two starts back he finished third sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Tampa, earning a 68 Brisnet Speed rating.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 2 with 5,8 with 5,8 with 1,3,4,6 with 1,3,4,6 ($24)
• $1 Super High 5: 2 with 5,8 with 1,3,4,6 with 5,8 with 1,3,4,6 ($24)
  Total: $48

Good luck!